Anthony Cornelius Meteorologist | Public figure
Anthony Cornelius Meteorologist
Reviews
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24.01.2022 That was quite a storm that just went through Newcastle producing gusts of 146km/h!!! :o Check out some of the radar - the first is the velocity image which shows the Doppler winds through the storm. That's a very large outflow boundary sweeping ahead of the line! The second is the reflectivity scan in 3D, this shows the developing (and large) updrafts ahead of the storm. So what happened? It's early days - but I suspect the initial storms were very high based and due to the... dry conditions generated a and of strong winds (gusts of 70-80km/h look to have occurred at the inland stations). That strong westerly push collided with the seabreeze front which lifted more unstable air into the atmosphere where it eventually came down in a torrent. Due to the very dry conditions above the seabreeze, it's likely some of this rain evaporated which caused it to sink rapidly - and then once it hit the ground it fanned out causing the strong winds. See more
23.01.2022 More Severe Storms on the way for Southeast Queensland! Today is another potentially volatile day with a Modfied Southeast Change setup over the region. These setups work a bit different to conventional setups - as the strongest instability normally lies behind the SE change rather than in front of it. To make things 'worse' - the stronger winds that the SE change brings in the lower atmosphere can enhance wind shear so it's not uncommon to get isolated supercells develop (ev...en if they are a bit messy). So you can't rule out the potential for very large hail or locally destructive winds to occur. Normally these setups favour areas just inland from the coastline though I do think that some more eastern areas could well and truly be in the firing line today of severe storms - particularly that Beaudesert - southern/western Brisbane corridor, and then extending west from there. The main areas I feel to watch will be these ones, and then extending into the Scenic Rim/Lockyer Valley/Brisbane Valley and Ipswich. However if that drier air does encroach in, it could see stronger activity contract more to the coast so that's one to watch too. Another area of interest about be down into the Northern Tablelands - storms here should be quite isolated due to a stronger cap. But if storms manage to develop here they're quite likely to be severe and could contain a fair amount of hail. As always - keep an eye on the sky and monitor warnings!
22.01.2022 Storms (Possibly Severe) On the Way Once Again for Areas of Southeastern Queensland & NE NSW Today's storm setup shares a lot of similarities with the storm setup from last Tuesday in that it's a modified southeast change setup. This can happen when you have a hot and somewhat dry airmass pushing in from the northwest and then a southeasterly mixes in with it as it as the southeast change advances into it. This allows the airmass to share properties of both the heat from the ...west and the moisture from the east. The caveat is that the boundary of prime storm development can often be quite narrow. Too far east and the environment will be fairly cool (strong cap), and too far west ant the environment may produce storms but there won't be much directional shear to promote the development of higher end severe storm activity. This narrow band of enhanced storm potential can still yield some nasty storms - and one or two supercells may occur through the far northern corner of NSW along the ranges - pushing up into the western areas of the Southeast Coast district (Boonah - Ipswich - Kilcoy and west), eastern areas of the Darling Downs (Warwick Toowoomba) and then into the Kingaroy - Gympie - inland Sunshine Coast areas. These are the main areas of interest today and locally destructive winds and very large hail may occur in a couple of storms here. I'd be paying particular attention to an storms that move to the N/NE with storms tracking more E/NE more likely to push into the cooler and more stable air more quickly. Of course there is the potential that the cap could simply become too strong too quickly and this would really reduce the afternoon's potential. Elsewhere closer to the coast (particularly Brisbane - Gold Coast - Ballina), the atmosphere should cool down more quickly taking the edge off severe potential. This does not rule out severe storms as sometimes very large storms can survive the stronger capping, but this is a muich lower risk (non-severe storms developing above the cap are a more likely scenario). Further west and north (Darling Downs, central Queensland) will likely experience isolated to scattered storms. High LCLs from the hot and relatively dry conditions should promote the development of microbursts capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
21.01.2022 Great Australia Bight Dust Storm! Out of all the things you might expect to see in the Southern Ocean, dust is probably not that high on the list! But thanks to gale force northerlies flowing down ahead of a cold front, it's picking up dust from South Australia and transporting it over 1000km into the Southern Ocean! We can expect to see a few showers and storms in South Australia today as moisture flows down from a decaying trough in western Queensland and meets up with the approaching frontal system.
13.01.2022 Saw this fairly nasty looking storm south of Rosewood today! It was definitely a case of being patient and waiting for the southeasterly to do its thing (not helped by it being a little later than expected). However a couple of cells got going for an hour or so under the modified airmass and produced 2-3cm radar indicated hail over the region. The lightning was particularly impressive, often striking many kilometres ahead of the storm (which actually made this cell a little dangerous to chase, I stayed in the car most of the time for this reason!)
13.01.2022 Looking like a warm one tomorrow! Here's the latest C3 max temp forecast for Southeast Queensland, the Darling Downs and Northeast NSW. Maximums are expected to nudge towards 40C in parts of the Darling Downs, while reach well into the mid to high 30s for large parts of Southeast Queensland and Northeast NSW! That's not surprising when you consider how hot it's been over the Northern Territory lately. All that heat is going to be dragged southeast and pushed into the region tomorrow ahead of a gusty southerly change that will bring much cooler temperatures. It is November though, so it's not too unusual to see a hot day like this but for those who won't get the seabreeze along the coastline it will definitely be felt!
11.01.2022 Wow - that is MASSIVE hail at Cabarita today!!! (NE NSW)
09.01.2022 Have a look at some of the radar-derived hail values over Brisbane and Gympie yesterday! We're developing a system that shows the radar-estimated hail sizes on the radar! Here's it in action yesterday, at one point it suggested over 20 hailstorms were present simultaneously over Southeast Queensland! There are four types of hail markers you'll see:... White triangle outline - Small hail possible Solid White Triangle - Hail Likely Solid White Triangle (with number) - Large hail likely (number indicates hail size in cm) Solid Purple Triangle (with number- Giant hail possible (number indicates hail size in cm) Just a note that the hail marker belongs to the storm (not the exact location where the hail may have fallen), but it gives a very good idea where the larger hail was and correlates well to the massive hail observed in the southwestern and western areas of Brisbane and Southeast Queensland yesterday. Also, hail in excess of 5-7cm can sometimes be under-analysed which shows why even with 6-8cm hail markers that some people had 10cm+ stones! You'll also see some of the 3D radar slices too on the right hand side (which is designed for more advanced users). What is also impressive was the number of severe hailstorms that trained over very similar locations - that's very rare as normally once a large storm (or supercell) moves over the location, it wipes out the energy. However yesterday's setup was so unstable and dynamic that we saw multiple supercells track over the same location!
07.01.2022 Geez that is gigantic hail!!! I hope everyone is safe and uninjured from today. Those storms were incredibly violent with supercell after supercell just tracking across. It’s extremely rare to get this type of setup here and something you would normally see in the US!
06.01.2022 STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL has been activated for parts for SE QLD. If you are in the path of these storms TAKE SHELTER NOW! Two supercells tracking into the metropolitan area that have already produced tennis ball hail.
05.01.2022 Here's a few photos I took yesterday around Southeast Queensland, some very lovely and interesting storm structure. Hard to imagine it can signal something so destructive!
04.01.2022 What Is A Supercell? Quick Analysis of November 13, 2020 SE QLD Supercell Well, I don't think anyone expected a large supercell to track over parts of the Southeast Coast yesterday! If you did, please contact us and we'll give you a job at our met desk straight away! :D Out of all the threats you could have chosen for yesterday, "cricketball HP supercell" was probably well at the bottom of the list, though there was certainly some severe potential there with the strong wind s...hear and (what were meant to be) high bases due to the dry air. We were very fortunate that this storm weakened quickly on approach to Ipswich, had it not done so it would have done a lot of damage. And many people may be thinking what all the fuss was about because it weakened very rapidly and was a non-event in Brisbane. However I couldn't get over how textbook the supercell was on the radar. I've included a few images because I feel that they were just the perfect way to show how a supercell might look on the radar. The term "supercell" is actually a technical term - and the definition is a "sustained, deep, rotating updraft." Have a look at the 3D radar scans - there is a classic "candy cane" structure. The technical term for this is "Bounded Weak Echo Region" (BWER). This occurs when the updraft is so strong, that the hail cannot fall down to the ground. Instead, it might actually start to fall around the updraft instead! So this gives this candy cane look to it and is nearly always a sign of a severe storm. Doppler radar also provides us information about the winds - and we can do a 3D slice of the winds in the storm too. Check out the opposing winds where where the 'candy cane' is! That's because the updraft (that the hail cannot fall through) is rotating! It's pretty much as much proof as you can get that a storm is a supercell on radar when you can see the rotating updraft (mesocyclone) so clearly defined on the winds, right where it should in reference to the precipitation. So how does such a well organised supercell die so quickly? Supercells can sometimes produce what's known as a Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD). However last night, this burst of air actually pushed well ahead of the storm (you can see it on the radar as an outflow boundary!) Once this occurred, it cut the flow of warm, moist air to the updraft meaning that the fuel to the storm was immediately cut (much like cutting a fuel hose to your car). This caused the storm to rapidly weaken with no new updraft development and then it ultimately died over Brisbane (thankfully as we don't want more damage!) I've also included a small collage of photos I took yesterday of the storm (including a hail photo from my folks who narrowly missed the worst of the storm).
01.01.2022 DANGEROUS HALLOWEEN STORMS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND & NE NSW! If people do nothing else - PLEASE keep an eye on the sky tomorrow. With Halloween there's going to be a lot of children out and about during the afternoon and evening which given the storm potential is concerning. DON'T trick-or-treat if you can hear thunder or if a storm is coming! They'll be moving very quickly tomorrow and it will be easy to be caught out and the last thing we want is to see young live...Continue reading
