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25.01.2022 And now 5 years later... as predicted nothing has changed. Some of the worlds top scientists are telling us COP21 locks us into disaster: "The hollow cheering of success at the end of COP21 agreement proved yet again that people will hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. What people wanted to hear was that an agreement had been reached on climate change that would save the world while leaving lifestyles and aspirations unchanged. What they disregarded were the d...eadly flaws lying just beneath its veneer of success. As early as the third page of the draft agreement is the acknowledgment that its CO2 target won’t keep the global temperate rise below 2 deg C, the level that was once set as the critical safe limit. The solution it proposes is not to agree on an urgent mechanism to ensure immediate cuts in emissions, but to kick the can down the road by committing to calculate a new carbon budget for a 1.5 deg C temperature increase that can be talked about in 2020. Given that we can’t agree on the climate models or the CO2 budget to keep temperatures rises to 2 deg C, then we are naïve to think we will agree on a much tougher target in five years when, in all likelihood, the exponentially increasing atmospheric CO2 levels mean it will be too late. More ominously, these inadequate targets require mankind to do something much more than cut emissions with a glorious renewable technology programme that will exceed any other past human endeavour. They also require carbon to be sucked out the air. The favoured method is to out-compete the fossil fuel industry by providing biomass for power stations. This involves rapidly growing trees and grasses faster than nature has ever done on land we don’t have, then burning it in power stations that will capture and compress the CO2 using an infrastructure we don’t have and with technology that won’t work on the scale we need and to finally store it in places we can’t find. To maintain the good news agenda, all of this was omitted from the agreement. The roar of devastating global storms has now drowned the false cheer from Paris and brutally brought into focus the extent of our failure to address climate change. The unfortunate truth is that things are going to get much worse. The planet’s excess heat is now melting the Arctic Ice cap like a hot knife through butter and is doing so in the middle of winter. Unless stopped, this Arctic heating will lead to a rapid release of the methane clathrates from the sea floor of the Arctic and herald the next phase of catastrophically intense climate change that our civilisation will not survive." See more

23.01.2022 2020 the year that never ends...

23.01.2022 Australia has always been a big, hot, dry place, a land of floods and fires.... BUT this means our baseline for extreme weather is high, add a few degrees and it goes from extreme to catastrophic, which is what we are now seeing. Continue down this path another step and we arrive at apocalyptic. It's been known for a long time that most of mainland Australia becomes uninhabitable with around 3C of warming, no guarantee we won't find it difficult to cope with less. Starting to... see mainstream articles acknowledging Australians could become refugees should hammer this home to everyone. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZD2RU

22.01.2022 So the CO2 increases observed to be correlated with more recent temperature trends, according to NASA’s OCO-2 satellite, is actually a result of trends in the l...oss of natural vegetation, respiration and it's ability to uptake carbon.. ..determined by the sun’s energy.. ..not specifically trends in human emissions? ~ ~ ~ "A new NASA study provides space-based evidence that Earth’s tropical regions were the cause of the largest annual increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration seen in at least 2,000 years. In 2015 and 2016, OCO-2 recorded atmospheric carbon dioxide increases that were 50 percent larger than the average increase seen in recent years preceding these observations. These measurements are consistent with those made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That increase was about 3 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year -- or 6.3 gigatons of carbon. In recent years, the average annual increase has been closer to 2 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year -- or 4 gigatons of carbon. These record increases occurred even though emissions from human activities in 2015-16 are estimated to have remained roughly the same as they were prior to the El Nino, which is a cyclical warming pattern of ocean circulation in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. In eastern and southeastern tropical South America, including the Amazon rainforest, severe drought spurred by El Nino made 2015 the driest year in the past 30 years. Temperatures also were higher than normal. These drier and hotter conditions stressed vegetation and reduced photosynthesis, meaning trees and plants absorbed less carbon from the atmosphere. The effect was to increase the net amount of carbon released into the atmosphere."

21.01.2022 Anyone can go to the NASA website and in a minute plot warming since the start of the modern temperature record... this is long after warming started from industrialization, for pre-industrial you actually need to add another .3C of warming. But I'll ignore that and use the modern temperature record because it's simple for anyone to verify. In 2016 we had 1.28C of warming above a 1880-1911 baseline. This was a stong el-nino year and showed a rise of .23C per decade from the ...previous strong el-nino year 1998. These peeks give us clear points we can compare to see both the rate of warming and the warming to expect in hot years (when there is a strong el-nino). We cross over to seeing years above 1.5C just following the linear trend, ignoring that this is actually exponential and ignoring that we are starting to see strong feedback's kick in that will further accelerate this in 10 years from 2016, around 2026. So how is it possible that people think we still have a carbon budget for 1.5C? Do they understand that there is already locked in warming? Do they understand how to plot and read a simple graph that anyone can find? I personally don't see how it's plausible that anyone with a reasonable amount of intelligence who takes a little time to look at the temperature record could really believe keeping to 1.5C is possible. Now the the el-nino years are the peaks but in recent times we have seen after these peaks a slight drop then not long after temperatures return to similar levels in non el-nino years, as we are seeing this year, relative to the last peak. So just by observation of the modern temperature record and the pattern and trends it shows we should conclude we are only 5 or 6 years from being at a point were we should expect to see the 1.5C mark broken. looking further into the future 2C at current rates is only 2 decades after that. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/customize.html

20.01.2022 If we stopped all emissions now (+.07 C min) would all the sea ice still melt? Yes (+.05 C min) If we had 1.2 C extra warming would all the ice and snow on land in the northern hemisphere go? Yes (+ .05 C min) If we have current 1.3 C (currently over a 1880-1911 baseline) + 1.7 C that takes us to 3 C over nearly pre-industrial that is enough to kill the Amazon (+ 1 c) and all other rain-forests (+ ?), burn all the forests of the world pretty much leaving the land bare and tre...e less. Melt all the permafrost rapidly, releasing it's stored methane and carbon as well as destabilize the methane hydrates... This easily takes us past 4C and the latest science tells us at 4C cloud formation in the tropics is compromised and we quickly get another 8C of warming taking us to 12C. We don't have to even consider locked in warming, or additional emissions from now... failing geo-engineering or some other miraculous happening I don't see how we don't hit 12C the mathematics seems reasonably clear. A 20% increase in the rate the oceans are warming should tell us quite clearly it's all about to go bad very very quickly. If you understand the maths it's no surprise, you just have to add up a few feedbacks but understand some of them multiply not add... I didn't want to scare you... See more

19.01.2022 Ocean acidification isn't only a dire problem for the oceans. It will also lead to another positive feedback as less carbon is sequestered by the oceans as they acidify. Currently the oceans absorb 30% of all the carbon we emit. https://phys.org//2019-08-acid-oceans-plankton-fueling-fas

15.01.2022 Plankton not trees produce the majority of oxygen, lose the plankton and we are done... simple as that. With a 76% loss in shell thickness it doesn't look good for plankton.

13.01.2022 We need to change farming, could this be the answer? https://www.theguardian.com//lab-grown-food-destroy-farmin

12.01.2022 Clouds.... a big factor in Global warming. New climate models highlight their influence has been underestimated and we are in a more dire position than previously thought... who would have thought. https://e360.yale.edu//why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troub

12.01.2022 "The primary question among the science community was: did the fires show that we are approaching a tipping point? Or are we going through it? Or have we crashed through the other side?" Professor Bowman said. In other words, are we nearly at the point of this being what to expect regularly or are we past that point.

10.01.2022 ORIGINALLY POSTED THIS IN 2016... surprisingly if I had to guess today I'd still say 2025... not sure if that is good or bad... "Expect to face firsthand the terror of biosphere collapse where as social order disintegrates your mothers, wives, and daughters are raped, along with your sons sold into slavery, before they and you die like famished stray dogs; filthy, hot, and hungry, as your local bioregion fails." Does not matter if I look at the science or the data both po...int to the same conclusion the planet is altering at an increasing rate. Industrial civilization can not continue the biosphere is beginning to collapse. Brace for an end that none of us want to face. This article expresses the problem and conclusion quite well (except for ignoring the nuclear holocaust that will result from the meltdown of hundreds of reactors as civilization collapse leaves them unable to be maintained). If I had to have an educated guess at when civilization as we know it collapses right now I'd be saying 2025, though I continue to hope against hope that I am wrong, time to brace for impact. See more

09.01.2022 So if it's twice as strong then the conservative .5C to .7C should be 1 to 1.5C added warming when we stop emissions...

09.01.2022 How many years of these types of releases to push us over the literal edge of the cliff... how long until year on year concentrations are rising at a rate that we can only describe as runnaway... I suspect the number will be around 5 give or take 4.... https://www.independent.co.uk//vast-methane-plumes-seen-in

08.01.2022 Every now and then I see people bring together the pieces into a concise picture of the predicament that global civilization now finds it's self in. Here in this presentation to UN aid agencies the problems of increasing heat, decreasing crop yields along with Arctic amplification and sea ice loss all come together to spell out the course we are locked into. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Deaz3UN0rw

08.01.2022 https://www.vancourier.com/permafrost-emits-more-carbon-in-

07.01.2022 Time and time again we here the same words, faster than expected, worse than expected, unprecedented. The more we understand, the more nature reveals it's self the more dire the predicament we face. Do not allow the message to be watered down we face an existential threat which only the most unprecedented response of the part of humanity will give us a chance of surviving. No action we take can be too extreme, no sacrifice too great, such is the urgency and gravity of the moment we find ourselves in.

07.01.2022 IF TODAY WE DON"T ACT TO STOP EMISSIONS THEN WE BETTER ADD AN 'APOCALYPTIC' FIRE RATING BECAUSE IT WILL BE REQUIRED. There is a ridiculous debate and maintenance of the status quo happening, business as usual being maintained. Yes we know that we have multiple factors driven by the climate crisis making bushfires worse... we have more locked in warming, which will push all the factors, heat, dryness and wind in the wrong direction. When you increase multiple factors simultane...ously that all contribute to each other you have an exponential increase. It was only a decade ago in 2009 that is was seen as necessary to introduce the 'catastrophic' fire danger rating. Now a decade on, catastrophic, unprecedented fires are common across the globe. But still infrequent in Australia thankfully. The conditions that today lead to a catastrophic rating you would expect to be more common as the climate crisis continues and warming continues. It is now at the extremes that the catastrophic conditions occur but what if we continue down this path. Then the catastrophic conditions will no longer be at the extreme but be frequent. A decade from now with today's catastrophic being normal conditions a magnitude worse will be occurring during extreme events... I say that purely from a mathematical point of view... the same mathematical point of view that is now seeing unprecedented events globally. So in the future they will need to update their fire danger rating to include a new category beyond 'catastrophic, perhaps 'apocalyptic'... I suspect during these apocalyptic events firefighters will not be able to approach fire areas but will simply guard the areas people have retreated to. Of course even then these factors will continue to get worse. But I doubt we will need a category beyond 'apocalyptic' as the forests won't survive these conditions there will be barren desert with little for fires to consume. It's important people realise this isn't a horrible future we have created we are now living through. This is a horrible present we are in with an even more horrific future locked in and every day we continue to lock in even more extreme suffering that will bear down upon our society with unrelenting ferocity. What we do or don't do today the price is paid for a decade from now and once it's done no amount of regret will undo it.

06.01.2022 Deep adaption... beyond fixing it, it's about surviving the horror... is this were the conversation is now heading? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHAtbSfLEiY

05.01.2022 We found that 2019 was not only the warmest year on record, it displayed the largest single-year increase of the entire decade, a sobering reminder that human-caused heating of our planet continues unabated,

04.01.2022 I think in the context of abrupt climate change now starting to lead to ecosystem collapse and pushing our climate far enough that we are regularly seeing extreme weather events that were simply not possible even a decade ago... I think in that context I would be surprised if we were not seeing this human response. What still however surprises me is that even as all this is happening we have still failed to take any meaningful action. I get it may just be too late and that no...w that ecosystems are collapsing with more warming locked in the transition needs to be so quick it will be incredibly difficult. I get it's hard to see how this can happen before more feedbacks put us into runaway climate change and it's all for nothing. I get all that but still I thought we would have come together and tried. I always thought there would be a huge awakening and humanity would pull everything out to strive to survive. Never thought the response would be Trump, Morrison, Bolsonaro and Johnson... just when we needed heroic action the world puts clown puppets in power, go figure... lol

04.01.2022 Climate bomb may be about to go off...