Bernard Salt Publications | Media
Bernard Salt Publications
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25.01.2022 It is the question that everyone in business is (or should be) asking: how will the #coronavirus change the Australian way of life? Some say we will be more fractured. I think quite the reverse. In 1942 when the Japanese bombed Darwin and penetrated Sydney harbour, we panicked. But after the war we were remarkably united; we placed our faith rightly or wrongly in leadership, in each other, and in due course we were delivered victory and salvation. The WWII generation were bui...lders, entrepreneurs, procreators; after the war they wanted to get on with life. Fear can be a mightily galvanising force. After the pandemic we will review Fed-State relations, #supplychains security, trade and geopolitical alliances. Work from home will comprise a far greater proportion of the workforce (than prior to the pandemic); WFH has been like putting a defibrillator on the suburbs jumping them into life. And there'll be fewer immigrants, students, visitors in the city centre, in short term. The primacy of the CBD will be challenged. It may take years to reduce unemployment to pre-pandemic levels. The narrative of city life must change as a consequence creating opportunities for some and challenges for others. The Weekend Australian Magazine page 26 $4. https://tinyurl.com/yy6edubt See more
25.01.2022 In a new report released today, commissioned by #Xero, "Rebuilding Australia: The role of small business," I compare ABS estimates of employment by occupation February-May to show the impact of COVID’s first wave. Waiters, kitchenhands, baristas, shop assistants, beauty therapists (and many others) lost jobs on a vast scale. But some jobs increased and especially in sectors like agribusiness (drought broke), technology (geeks got us online), logistics (perhaps a response to h...oarding) and healthcare (GPs re-entering workforce). Despite the devastation there are green shoots and skills in demand. Plus, a survey of business owners found that those optimistic about the next six months outnumber pessimists 2:1. Optimism, even during a pandemic, seems to be hardwired into the small business DNA. See https://tinyurl.com/yxnwd7qb or download (free) at www.xero.com/au/behindsmallbusiness [This 60-page report contains extensive graphics, latest data and several case studies.] #coronavirus #smallbusiness See more
23.01.2022 I am thrilled to again have been nominated as one of the Top 20 Voices in LinkedIn Australia for 2020. Many thanks to LinkedIn and to those who follow (and comment on) my posts, presentations, media commentary, podcasts and weekly columns. See full list of Top Voices 2020 here https://lnkd.in/gytsWMB
23.01.2022 Join me Tuesday 29 September 10.30am for a webinar where I deliver a slide-&-chat presentation on the impact of the #coronavirus pandemic on the Australian way of life. This is more than a blip to be endured; it is shifting the way we work, it will alter how and where we live; it’s creating winners and losers in specific parts of the economy; it’s affecting core values like trust. After presenting I’m being interviewed by Turi Condon former property editor at The Australian. I’ll be drawing on work completed by The Demographics Group recently completed for the NHFIC Australia. It’s free but you do have to register at tinyurl.com/NHFICwebinar
22.01.2022 The coming of the coronavirus has stress-tested #healthcare systems and resources as well as community patience and expectations. But the pandemic has also demonstrated to the community that there is a social dividend to be had from assured funding, investment in staffing, commitment to technology, and the localisation of supply chains (eg PPE). In the "Healthcare & Wellness Briefing" slide-&-chat presentation series, speakers Bernard Salt and/or Simon Kuestenmacher scope the demographic landscape highlighting opportunities and challenges for this sector. Teenagers, 40-somethings and the frail elderly are set to surge in the 2020s and especially in some jurisdictions. As a community we need to ensure that we have the right healthcare resources positioned in the right areas to deliver the best quality healthcare to the Australian people.
21.01.2022 Here's where the human mind goes to after weeks, months, of lockdown. "To whom it may concern. My name is Bernard. I am being held captive in the state of Victoria. I am being tortured every night with TV footage of holidaymakers in sunny Queensland. I am planning my escape. Years ago I learnt that the Victoria-Tasmania boundary bisects a rocky outcrop (Boundary Islet) 50km off the Vic coast. Perhaps I can build a rubber raft made from raincoats and craft glue purchased a...t local stores, then paddle to Boundary Islet, land on the Victorian side, walk to the Tasmanian side, make a call for help and await my rescue. Tasmanian authorities might suspect me of being an escaped Melburnian and try to trip me up. They might casually ask 'would you like a coffee?' This is a trap. I must resist the urge to say, 'yes please, I'll have a long macchiato.' I must stick to my story. I am a recreational fisherman from Tassie's George Town whose boat flipped. I bumped my head in the commotion and now I have amnesia so I cannot recall the name of anyone who can vouch for who I am. And, no, I cannot name the kind of fish I was fishing for as I have forgotten that too. It might have been Tasmanian Salmon. Once freed I will make contact with the Tasmania's underground Victorian Resistance Movement who will provide me with papers and directions to Hobart and freedom." See page 23 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4 https://tinyurl.com/y5npeod8 See more
21.01.2022 The coming of the coronavirus has changed the corporate speaking industry. Gone are the in-person conferences with hundreds if not thousands of attendees. Also gone are topics based on various aspects of globalisation. In has come a new regime requiring adaptation to new technology (Zoom and others), new topics (pathways to recovery, the hastening of change, the pursuit of supply chain sovereignty, skills of the future) and the need for clarity around "presenting" protocols and the value proposition. I think that business is inherently optimistic, is always looking for 'green shoots', and wants to be presented with credible options as to the way forward.
21.01.2022 In his 1979 book "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" author Douglas Adams posits humanity's greatest question: what is the meaning life? The answer, apparently, is 42. And I have to say I kinda agree with Adams: 42 is the sweet-spot mid-point of the modern lifecycle. At this age you are neither young nor old. #Retirement lies 20+ years into the future and middle age has yet to tighten its grip by wickedly thickening the waists of the innocent. Most people are partnered by ...42 and many have kids. It's surely a time of joyous family life but also of great stresses and financial strains. It is said that you buy the most expensive #property you will ever own around the age of 42. It's called 'trading up' to get a second bathroom, more living space, perhaps also to confirm your success and ambition. There are 321,000 people aged 42 in Australia today; these are the children of the baby boomers, a kind of echo boom, driving up this 'sweet spot' cohort by 19 per cent over the next 5 years injecting ambition, housing demand, entrepreneurship and a healthy dose of can-do-ism into the post-pandemic world. Maybe the late Douglas Adams was right about the significance of 42? See The Weekend Australian Magazine p 27 $4 https://tinyurl.com/yytp7yav See more
20.01.2022 In today's "Australian" I present data from 3 sources to build a picture of the coronavirus. 1. ABS labourforce data shows that between February & May the workforce contracted by 6% ranging from 15% for low-skilled (Skill Level 5) workers to 0% knowledge workers (Skill Level 1). 2. 2016 Census data shows that Skill Level 1 workers (knowledge workers) were far more likely to work from home than low-skilled (SL5) workers. 3. DHHS data shows that most coronavirus cases appl...y to postcodes with a high proportion of low-skilled workers eg 376 cases in 3020 (Sunshine) with 26% of the workforce in SK5 (or 11 percentage points above the AU average). We have mapped Australian cities to show the most vulnerable postcodes based on skill level: Melbourne's west and north; Sydney's west; Brisbane's south; Adelaide's north; Perth not so much. Low skilled (SL5) workers do not have the option of working from home; the nature of their work means that they work in close association with other workers or with the public. "We are all in this together" is a noble ideal but the brunt of the infection, and of the unemployment, is being borne by the least skilled. The question we need to be thinking about now is not so much how we rebuild Australia, but rather the kind of Australia we want to rebuild and bequeath to the next generation. Piece includes extensive mapping, charts, tables. See p17 The Weekend Australian $4 https://tinyurl.com/y3d9a4re See more
17.01.2022 What will be the effect of the pandemic on the way we live? Let's fast forward to 2030 and look back. "The impact of the coronavirus was felt in 2020; the recovery came in 2021 which ushered in a period of great joy and relief that the worst was over. Businesses sprang into life. Unemployment fell but not as quickly as it had risen. The coronavirus prompted new business models: as it turned out, cafes permanently offering takeaway and shops increasingly selling online re...quire fewer waiters and sales assistants. We moved closer to the US. We developed local supply chains. But there was something else that the coronavirus left as a legacy. Many of the divisions that we had taken into the 2020s dissipated as we worked together, looked out for our neighbours, masked up in unison and all followed direction and discussed the day's figures and developments. The coronavirus took a terrible toll in so many ways but in another way we came through the ordeal more united than ever and that enabled us to get on with the job of rebuilding Australia." In due course maybe this is how we will view "the coming of the coronavirus." See page 27 "The Weekend Australian Magazine" $4 https://tinyurl.com/y4xygaop See more
16.01.2022 The 2020s is shaping to be a doozy of a decade: bushfire, pandemic, recession, rising unemployment, surging debt, business collapse, trade disputes and possibly more with China and civic unrest. What else could go wrong? How about the 1950s baby boom morph into a 2020s baby bust as more workers exit than enter the tax-paying workforce? What happens to a community when GDP, the tax base and social cohesion all subside? The world is cleaving into two blocs: one with a rising... 'productive core' (aged 25-54) eg India, Pakistan, and one where the 25-54 share is contracting eg Australia but especially Japan, China, Italy and more. Sure, any country can fund military adventurism during the 2020s but for many, including China and "the West" this will come at the expense of other spending priorities. This logic of rising and falling 'productive core' cohorts also applies to Australia's local government communities. The City of Melbourne for example attracts young worker types and flings out the rest. Resources communities, eg Karratha, are losing their middle 'worker cohorts' (off a high base). It all leads me to conclude that the single most important quality for any community or country in the 2020s is social cohesion. A united community can overcome any obstacle. See p17 The Weekend Australian $4. Piece includes extensive mapping, charts, tables https://tinyurl.com/y3yemqjr See more
14.01.2022 Do you think working from home is here to stay? Would you say that not having to commute is the best aspect of working from home? And is the worst thing not having access to IT support? (I answered 'yes' to both of these questions.) In a collaboration between The Demographics Group, Future Fit Co. and (Alicia Stephenson's) Centre for Generational Dynamics, we have jointly prepared a 5-min #survey designed to deliver insights and tease out attitudes to the new and evolving wol...d of #work. We will use this #WORKshift survey to dissect the trends, the concerns, the aspirations of workers emerging from the post lockdown world. Will workers clamour to get back their CBD office towers? Is there a new respect emerging for leadership? How will Generation Z learn the interpersonal skills of business while working from home? So many questions. Help us find the answers or at least a pathway forward. Access survey here: https://lnkd.in/gyqvSmh See more
14.01.2022 The #coronavirus has reshaped the way we live and work. Many CBD office workers are working from home. The concern is that a portion may want to continue working from home. If so, what impact does that have on the CBD? I have accessed data on jobs, residents, students and hotel rooms from Census and other sources, for the CBD and surrounding suburbs of 5 capital cities. Central Melbourne contained 448,000 jobs at the last census. The office market requires every worker who de...camped to their home office to return to their city office. Central Melbourne had 32,000 hotel rooms in 2016; they need visitor flows to be viable. There were 26,000 foreign students based in Central Melbourne in 2016. What if in 2021 foreign students choose Canada instead of Australia? What becomes of the student accommodation market? Sydney's CBD is the biggest job-hotel-visitor 'engine' in Australia. Brisbane's CBD follows suit. Adelaide's CBD has a big contingent of students. Perth's CBD is modest across these metrics and office workers there are less likely to have decamped to the 'burbs. But if working from home does become entrenched then perhaps a premium will be attached to those jobs that remain CBD based. See page 17 The Weekend Australian $4.50 https://tinyurl.com/y5uy72qh See more
13.01.2022 Forget the Fokkers. Meet the VESPAs, the Virus Escapees Seeking Provincial Australia. They're the hippest, the coolest, the latest social tribe to emerge from Australia's ever-fertile demographic soup. Fed up with lockdown, congestion, and fear of contagion in the big city? Then pack up and head off--or should that read scooter off--to the regions (replete with work-from-home job) and find something more affordable, more in tune with your lifestyle aspirations and with sp...ace to spare. New data from real estate research group Ripehouse Advisory shows that the number of residential sales recorded in July 2020 were up more than 50% on July 2019 figures in Wodonga, Wollondilly, Tamworth, Warrnambool, Ballina, Latrobe (Vic) and Shepparton. In Warrnambool, the median prices jumped 16% over this year. This may well be part of a wider flee-the-city movement, but it might also be a response to the drought-breaking, bushfire-quelling rains that drenched the interior in summer. Whatever the cause, the regions are greening, life is returning, interest is brimming in the cities and towns of "the sunlit plains extended" that comprise this nation's beating rural heartland. See p7 The Australian "Regional Industry Special Report" $3. https://tinyurl.com/yypmol6d See more
13.01.2022 The coming of the #coronavirus is more than a blip to be endured. It has the potential to change the narrative of #urban life. The key instrument of change is the work-from-home experiment. Most will eventually return to commuting perhaps to the CBD but many will choose to WFH as their preferred way of life. The fried egg model of Australian #cities, with flat suburbs surrounding a rich creamy CBD yolk then gives way to a series of self-contained regions, the 20-minute c...ities planners have been angling for since the early 2000s. Live, work, study, shop, exercise all within the local area. The home expands, requires space, incorporates an enlarged home office, fortresses, turns inwards. Inner-city aficionados now with 2 kids seek out and create their own hipster version of suburbia, not out there but in the first ring of backyard #housing, the inner-middle suburbs say 7-12 km from the city centre. Suburbia is enlivened by a new 24/7 energy; WFH is like putting a defibrillator onto the city’s formerly comatose middle. See page 28 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4; see (p/w) https://lnkd.in/gHGt6g2 #urbanplanning See more
12.01.2022 Last week I delivered a webinar to Commonwealth Private clients where I talked about the world beyond the #coronavirus. I made the point that Australia has recovered from war, depression and even pandemic previously and we will do so again. I talked about the adaptability of Australian business and the opportunity to create a stronger Australia in the 2020s. Thank you to MC Natalie Sparke for managing the show including my 50-min slide-&-chat contribution streamed-in live from lockdown in Melbourne
12.01.2022 In my weekly telephone calls to my 94-year old mother she will often tell me stories of her father whom she loved and greatly admired, and who sadly died when she was just 24. He was steady and considered, she says. He helped her with her homework. He taught his four kids how to play cribbage and 500s (card games), how to play draughts. Her father left school at the age of 12, worked as a shearer and contract labourer shifting his family from job to job throughout the wes...tern district of Victoria. She says that during the Depression he would ensure that "swaggies" who'd turn up at the farmhouse were given a sandwich and some billy tea. She says she suspects he appreciated similar generosity when he was "off shearing". Over the years I can see that she has been comforted and inspired by the memory of this man, my grandfather, that I never knew. It shows the impact that an engaged, committed and loving father can have on someone for a lifetime. See page 28 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4 https://lnkd.in/gSzDgN2 #fathersday See more
12.01.2022 What and where will be the opportunities for business and the requirements for services over the next 5 years? The demographic landscape stretching to the 2025 horizon is already set in place by cohort progression, by internal migration, by (relatively) high birth rates. Three life-stages will surge in the early 20s: teens & young adults 15-24 up 233k in the next 5 years as compared with 145k over the last 5 years; family builders 40-54 up 353,000 by 2025; and the frail eld...erly 80+ up 195,000 by 2025. The rate of growth for other life-stages will contract, most notably first-home buyers aged 25-39 with 446k added by 2025 as compared with 621k added over last 5 years. Brisbane's City of Ipswich is set to boom as the greater metro area population spills into a 'new' southwest corridor. Ipswich will be the fastest growing place in Australia for kids, teens and young adults (aged 0-24) for much of the 2020s. Perhaps the most interesting transition is the imminent shuffling of Millennials out of their 30s into the 40s and which could drive demand for property with "a bit of a backyard" say in the inner middle suburbs, not too far from the CBD. Some might even join the flee-the-city movement. Piece includes extensive data and graphics; it is a must-read for anyone interested in the future of Australia. See p18 "Inquirer" $4 https://tinyurl.com/y2hml3vg See more
08.01.2022 There comes a point on the leeward side of the infection mountain when we need to open up the economy. Victoria is approaching that point but what should be opened and how? Some workers will need to return to work in office buildings. That could be achieved by rotating teams on 5-hour shifts starting at 7 am with the balance of their day spent working from home. That arrangement would spread to load on public transport and on city lifts. Allow cafes to spill onto the pavement.... Allow weddings and funerals to operate from now-disused convention centre space where larger congregations could be accommodated at 4 sqm per person. Domestic air passengers should be tested weekly; set up a testing facility in every airport. Overseas visitors must produce proof of having been tested within 3-5 days of boarding the plane and be tested again upon arrival. The aviation and tourism industry could be opened up with development of an instant test. (I suspect that will be easier to find than a universal vaccine.) Now that the worst is hopefully over we need to be thinking about how to open the economy while managing to contain the coronavirus risk. See page 26 The Weekend Australian $4 https://tinyurl.com/y5e24nyn See more
05.01.2022 In today's #HeraldSun, together with others, I offer my views on rebuilding #Victoria. Let's start with JFK's idea of "ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country." Imagine if 5 million Melbournians collectively did something everyday to help build a better #Melbourne. Support local businesses. Take on an apprentice. Place 'made in Vic' stickers on supermarket product. Volunteer. And then there's the issue of jobs which need to be plentiful, ...secure and accessible to anyone with the right skill set. But before there can be jobs of the future there needs to be businesses of the future. Ask industry leaders to set out a rule book to enable cafes, restaurants, gyms, hairdressers, concert halls, the airport and everything in between to open and operate safely. Rope in Melbourne identities to support this 'Building a Better Melbourne' program. Showcase examples of businesses that have 'weathered the COVID storm' and that have come out the other side with the business and its workforce intact. Set up a social media page to share ideas for creating a better city, for enabling businesses to operate safely, to create a sense of community and of recovery. See page 12 Herald Sun $2 (p/w) https://tinyurl.com/y5f5w924 See more
02.01.2022 What is going on with China? Our relationship seems to have soured. Was it something we said or didn't say? The problem for China is that it needs supplier states (such as Australia) to supply agricultural produce, coal, gas, iron ore and more to deliver a middle-class lifestyle to 1.4 billion people. The problem for Australia is that over the last decade China has emerged as our largest market for exports, imports, students and tourists. Much of our prosperity depends on... this relationship. The best case scenario from here, I think, is that current issues will be resolved as the pandemic subsides. Another scenario, and by no means the worst case, is that our trading relationship with China is diminished during the 2020s. The question with this scenario is by how much and how will this play out? I suspect the pathway forward in our relationship with China will become apparent over the balance of 2020. See page 28 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4 https://tinyurl.com/y2tfwl76 See more
02.01.2022 Apple Corporation is the biggest business in the US when measured by market capitalisation. It was founded in 1976. Then comes Amazon (1994), Microsoft (1975), Google (1998) and Facebook (2004). America has created 5 global businesses in one generation. In comparison, Australia's biggest businesses by market cap appear a tad dated: BHP founded in 1885, CSL (1916), CBA (1911) and Westpac (1817). Thank goodness for No 5, the software developer Atlassian founded in 2002. I...f Australians want secure jobs in the future then we need to create Australian-based big businesses otherwise we'll end up a kinda corporate vassal state forever dependent upon decisions taken elsewhere. BHP is the world's biggest mining company. Mining is an expertise that we should be good at (because we control an entire continent). But I think we should also have some of the world's biggest agribusiness businesses and yet none make the top 10. We should have built a BHP-type business in agribusiness a century ago based on wool which then could have spread into wheat, meat, dairy and then snapped up Kiwi businesses and then on to Argentina cattle, Canadian prairie beef, and perhaps South African vineyards. We need to work out what we're good at and build business expertise. Oh, and this would also require Australians to support big (agribusiness) business. See page 54 The Weekend Australian Magazine https://tinyurl.com/y39t7bdg See more
02.01.2022 In the final 30-min episode of Series 1 "What Happens Next?", I discuss with executive producer Whitney Fitzsimmons the commentary offered by our guests. I especially liked European futurist Matthias Hoarx's term 'glocalisation' to describe the post-covid world as a fusion between local and global influences. Then there was Matt Moran's thinking around adaptability in the food industry and Emma Germano's comments about the farming sector has had adapt to the changing climate. And then there were the discussions about online education, the rise of telehealth, and London's Mark Britnell explaining that wellness delivers prosperity. Listen and "subscribe" on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Click on the link in the Comments for this episode. And we will be back with Series 2 in a few weeks. https://bit.ly/WHNPodcast
01.01.2022 I first went to Europe in my 20s in 1984 and was struck by the similarities to life in Australia (and especially London). But there were big differences too. In Sienna I was confronted by the enthusiasm the Italians had for what seemed to me to be a risky horse race around an unbarricaded Piazzo del Campo. On subsequent visits over the years I developed the view that we Australians are more risk averse than are the Europeans. Over there cyclists don't seem obliged to wear ...helmets. There are no speed limits on some German autobahns. Even today smoking is tolerated in some Copenhagen pubs. And when it comes to the coronavirus the same logic applies: we are far jumpier than are, say, the Danes who have been going about their lives pretty much as normal since May. And this is despite Denmark having a death rate 4-5 times that of Australia. I also wonder whether Australian boards too aren't excessively risk averse or at least more so than elsewhere. Business development let alone creation involves some level of risk. Living even an everyday kind of life involves some level of risk. There is a thought that we may have to learn how to live with the coronavirus. And if this is the case then we will also need to learn how to live with greater levels of risk. See p24 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4 https://tinyurl.com/y5tamnz5 See more
01.01.2022 Name something from your daily routine for years if not decades that has not changed. It's a surprisingly hard question. It points to the ease with we adapt to change. Here's my thoughts. I am still with the bank that I started with in primary school even though it has gone through various iterations and re-brandings. The language we use has Americanised: guy replaced bloke in the 1970s. Our homes no longer have English parlours but rather Mediterranean kitchen/family-r...ooms. The back veranda now goes by the name alfrecso. I have had allegiance to the same football team since I was 10 (St Kilda). My breakfasts have changed: out with Vegemite on white bread toast; in with yogurt & cereal. But there is one thing that hasn't changed in 50 years: my allegiance to the humble Tek toothbrush. Simple, functional, cheap; it has survived; it speaks to my values. Fast forward 30 years to the house of the future and I doubt there's much we'd recognise. But wend your way to the bathroom and there will be a message from 2020, the simple, the functional, Tek toothbrush. Sometimes it's the smallest, the most perfectly evolved, things that survive the passing of time. What has survived in your daily routine? Page 27 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4.50 https://tinyurl.com/yxbpa7y2 See more
01.01.2022 It's 6 months since coronavirus surfaced in Australia. The 1919 Spanish flu was largely confined in Australia to 12 months. Maybe that's the timeframe such a virus works to and, if so, we're now at the halfway mark. We handled the first wave well; we remained in good spirits. Remember the funny memes? The second wave and especially in Melbourne feels different. The next 6 months could be harder. Fatigue has set in. Government support is being wound back. It's tempting ...to wallow in a world of self pity and Netflix. The way to get through this is to follow advice and to remain positive. We must work together as a community; help each other out. Surviving the 2020 pandemic means getting to the other side, maybe not with a job or a business intact, but with good mental health and positive interpersonal relationships. Reach out to someone in lockdown and remind them of the common bond of humanity; show them you care. We can't yet vaccinate against coronavirus but we can beat it by remaining united and adaptive and by being irrepressibly positive about the future. See p27 The Weekend Australian Magazine $4 https://tinyurl.com/y4f5qrt6 See more
