Dynamic Orange Man | Company
Dynamic Orange Man
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25.01.2022 Heat map at 10.52am with the market down 0.79% as we see a massive day of reporting with some big names. Love reporting season as we get to flesh out the bad and see how our preferred businesses are tracking. General Advice Only
22.01.2022 HEADLINES Trump says he is 'seriously' considering a capital gains tax cut and the nation can expect to hear more about his plans in the weeks ahead Republicans and Democrats remained deadlocked over a stimulus plan and gave no indication they were ready to head back into negotiations Fed study says average inflation targeting may be an effective tool in current environment Coronavirus hospitalisation trends improving in the US... Russia says it is first country to approve a coronavirus vaccine Trump considers banning re-entry by citizens who may have coronavirus China ditching expensive Brazilian soybean purchase and replacing with American supplies PBOC chief says Beijing will honour phase one deal by opening financial sector wider China seeks to calm US tension even while firing back at Trump Wall Street backs Joe Biden with millions in donations. Announces Kamala Harris as running mate. China new bank loans fall more than expected in July China auto sales surge in July, log fourth straight month of gains German ZEW economic sentiment beat, but no V-shaped recovery Singapore's economy contracted at a sharper pace than initial estimates UK suffers biggest job losses since 2009 as COVID hits Australian payroll jobs and business confidence drop amid Victoria's coronavirus crisis. NZ heads for limited lockdown as sees a small number of mystery cases. General Advice Only See more
22.01.2022 What to expect from markets: Volatility is the buzzword at the moment, as the pattern of ‘on-again, off-again’ sentiment towards tech in the US continues to infect our market. So far this week we have had daily point moves of +19, +63, -129, and +30 erratic stuff to say the least and more of the same likely today. The net result will probably be fourth consecutive losing week once the bell rings at 4 pm. General Advice Only
22.01.2022 Dow down 105 (-0.38%). Faded badly from the session high to end underwater; at best up 363, at worst down 167. European markets all higher. SPI Futures up nine points (+0.15%). There was nothing specific behind the late-afternoon reversal and some of the excuses seemed to revolve around largely recycled news. The path of least resistance recently has been higher on the monetary policy tailwind, economic surprise momentum and big earnings beats. Growth and momentum lagged valu...e and cyclicals again and have been more of an overhang for the broader market. US Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the coronavirus stimulus bill negotiations are at a stalemate following an earlier report that no additional talks are scheduled between the White House and Democrats. The market still expects a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. Trump talked about more tax relief while reports flagged logistical challenges of the recent executive actions. Biden has made his VP, Kamala Harris. Latest national poll has Biden ten points ahead of Trump while swing states are tightening. A San Francisco Fed paper highlighted the benefits of an average inflation target ahead of the central bank’s widely expected policy framework shift. Putin said Russia registered first coronavirus vaccine though lots of scepticism. US economic data showed the biggest gain in producer prices since Oct-18. Gold finished down 4.6%, the worst day since March. WTI ended down 0.7%, reversing earlier gains. Base metals mainly stronger. Iron ore up 2.2%. General Advice Only See more
21.01.2022 HEADLINES Fed plans for 'the worst' as it waits for Congress to act and signals concerns about virus surge on US recovery Analysts say Fed may shift more of its buying to the long end of the yield curve Republicans and Democrats 'nowhere close to a deal' on fifth coronavirus relief bill Republicans hunting for backup plan on relief package but Democrats don't want an interim deal... California, Florida and Texas seeing uptick in coronavirus fatalities Winter virus surge in Australia shows Europe and the US, what may come Coronavirus spikes in Asia spur warnings against complacency FDA nears decision authorizing Covid-19 treatment with convalescent plasma China falling well short of meeting phase one trade deal purchase targets Hong Kong arrests students under national security law, raising spectre of wider crackdown US economy suffered historic plunge in Q2 US renters owe $21.5bn in back rent while Republican proposal offers no eviction relief German economy contracted a record 10% in Q2 Japan's June retail sales fall for 4th month, but at slower pace Samsung beats estimates amid expectations for H2 recovery in chip demand Some of Biden's allies waging campaign to stop Kamala Harris from becoming his vice president General Advice Only See more
21.01.2022 The Australian market is set to open lower today with the SPI200 futures down 11 points or 0.18 percent to 6057. On Friday the S&P/ASX200 fell 9 points or 0.14 percent to 6111. General Advice Only
20.01.2022 HEADLINES for the day! Republican coronavirus relief bill proposal to include $1200 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits at ~70% wage replacement, liability protections, extension of federal eviction ban Trump officials float idea of narrow bill to extend unemployment benefits; proposal amounts to concession, two parties unlikely to reach deal before benefits expire Fed's balance sheet expansion has slowed but that does not mean it has dialled back its suppo...Continue reading
20.01.2022 HEADLINES Pandemic seems to be levelling off in US, but numbers remain high UK to limit gatherings from 30 to six as coronavirus cases spike US companies ignoring Trump's threats to decouple from China and repatriate manufacturing Chinese chipmakers speed up effort to cut reliance on US supplies... US-China showdown over big data to leave decades-long impact US bars some Chinese Xinjiang firms on alleged abuse McConnell unveils slimmed-down coronavirus relief bill in Senate, announces vote for later this week Pelosi, Schumer warn GOP coronavirus relief bill 'headed nowhere' Unswayed by Nasdaq rout, global investors stick to buying the dip US options investors pull back on tech bets, but SoftBank's trade looms large Biden to unveil new policy aimed at tackling offshoring as polls show Trump's advantage on economy diminishing Trump and Biden tied in Florida according to NBC News poll Fed's patient policies laid the groundwork for the record US expansion US airline travel over Labor Day surged to most since March with nearly 1m traveling on Friday China factory prices fall at slowest rate in five months as recovery continues UK government admits it will break international law over Brexit treaty Japan's Suga vows to put growth ahead of fiscal reform, signals status quo of Abenomics US companies stretch out debts to lock in low rates for longer Junk bonds boom as coronavirus lures investors to risk JPMorgan finds evidence employees and customers misused government stimulus funds, is cooperating with authorities General Advice Only
18.01.2022 Today’s Highlights ASX 200 up 20 to 6044. High 6044 Low 6013 Below average volume. Narrow trading range. Big Bank Basket $126.39. Gold price hits a record hit on US/China tensions.... All Tech Index up 1% 69 trading days until the US election. Dow Futures up 87 points. 10-year bond yield firms to 0.89% AUD rallies to 71.26c Aussie gold better at $2709 gold stocks rally. Bitcoin rallies to US$10252 In Asia, Japan is up 0.24% and China up 0.14%. General Advice Only See more
17.01.2022 The ASX 200 is up 27 points (+0.5%) to 6144 off session highs. Miners and consumer discretionary names are lifting the market. Energy and utilities weighing. BHP and RIO up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. FMG up 3.5%. WOW is improving 2.2% on its results, sales in the first eight weeks of the new financial year have been "strong". APT is up 0.1%, EBITDA ex-items up 73% to $44.4m vs guidance of $44m, which was upgraded last week from $20-25m. Z1P down 1.5%, achieved record full-ye...ar revenue of $161.0m, up 91%. Active customers 2.1m. BGA is up 6.2% on its results, observes it is well placed for EBITDA growth in FY21. APX down 10%, RBC says miss on sales, earnings. MOC up 18%, loan book at $54.0bn, FUA of $1.1bn. Final dividend 3.5c/share, fully franked. FLT up 0.24%, TTV finished the year 36% down on FY19 at $15.3bn. FY21 guidance not yet provided. RHC up 0.9%, no dividend. Committed to expanding business both in Australia and overseas. On the economic front, private capital expenditure fell 5.9% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, better than market consensus of an 8.4% drop. Dow Futures down 49 points. General Advice Only See more
15.01.2022 Today’s Highlights ASX 200 up 29 to 6139. High 6186 Low 6112. Average volume. Big Bank Basket rallies to $128.85 All Tech Index down 1.29%... 59 trading days until the US election. Dow Futures up 138. Gold falls to AUD$2,806. 10-year bond yields rise to 0.87%. AUD at 71.64c. Bitcoin flops back to $11841 Asian markets better with HK up 2.3% and China up 0.11%. Tokyo reopened after a day off and is up 2.54%. General Advice Only
14.01.2022 Today’s Highlights ASX 200 down 50 to 6076. High 6118 Low 6059. Below average volumes. Results dominate again. Big Bank Basket falls to $124.36... All Tech Index down 1.18% 55 trading days until the US election. Dow Futures up 69. Gold falls to AUD$2707. 10-year bond yield falls to 0.91% AUD rallies to 71.82c. Bitcoin firms to $11826 with gold higher. Asian markets mixed with South Korea on holidays but Japan down 0.84% and China very firm up 1.95%. General Advice Only
13.01.2022 Today’s Highlights ASX 200 down 41 to 6091 High 6157 Low 6076. Solid volume. Big Bank Basket falls to $126.93 Travel stocks back in vogue.... All Tech Index up 0.67%. XRO unchanged on update. 57 trading days until the US election. Dow Futures down 31. Gold rallies to AUD$2694. 10-year bond yields slip to 0.88%. AUD rallies to 71.66c. Bitcoin firms to $11556 with gold. Meanwhile, in Asia, Japan rose 1.16% and China up 0.14% with HK down 0.14%. General Advice Only See more
13.01.2022 SPI is pointing to a positive day
11.01.2022 HEADLINES White House warns Republicans prepared to walk away if Democrats don't give ground in coronavirus aid negotiations White House officials explore whether unspent money from Cares Act can be repurposed for unemployment aid and other initiatives Trump backs efforts in Congress to extend aid to airlines, as carriers face huge job cuts in October Florida cases pass 500K; New York City sets up checkpoints in bid to head off another outbreak... Fauci expects tens of millions of coronavirus vaccine doses at start of 2021 Johnson & Johnson strikes $1bn Covid-19 vaccine deal with US to secure 100m doses Uptick in German coronavirus cases raises fresh lockdown fears Fed policymakers say pickup in infections slowing US economic recovery BoE warns UK economy will not exceed pre-Covid-19 levels until end of 2021 China central bank adviser says no need to step up monetary easing Pompeo urges American companies to bar Chinese applications from their app stores Biden says US-China trade deal is failing badly and is unenforceable German industrial orders surge in fresh sign of recovery Australian GDP faces third straight quarterly contraction due to Victoria's lockdown Philippines economy contracts by most ever Goldman says vaccine approval could hit bonds and drive rotation out of tech and into cyclicals Hedge fund long-short ratio rises to highest in over a decade Biggest US banks have more than $150bn in deferred loans General Advice Only See more
09.01.2022 The ASX 200 fell 36 (-0.6%) to 6001 in a steady day of trade. Dow futures up 73 points. After early losses, the market rallied into the afternoon, closing off its worst levels. Miners firmed and the banks recovered some lost ground. The Big Bank Basket fell slightly to $122.70 with CBA up 0.3% and WBC down 0.95%. Other financials eased back after gains of recent days. MQG down 0.6% and SUN down 3.7%. In the miners, FMG continued its march higher with another 0.8% gain, BHP up... 0.1% and RIO down 1.1%, gold miners joined in the fun to celebrate US$2,000 gold. EVN up 3.7%, NST up 4.3% and RMS up 4.7%. Silver stocks did very well, ADT hit all-time highs up 17.4% and SVL rose 18.2%. Industrials though were soggy as healthcare stocks slipped led by CSL down 1.8% and RHC down 2.2%. Consumer stocks eased as WOW dropped 1.7% and TLS fell 2.3% after selling some data centres. Energy stocks down too as WPL fell 1.7% and STO down 0.5%. Tech stocks went nowhere really, APT up 0.3% after changing its logo colours, PME fell 3.6% and WTC saw a 3.6% drop on some profit-taking. In corporate news, VRL down 2.3%, extends exclusivity agreement with BGH. RWC improved 1.1% on its lockdown update. SRG rose 1.7% on NZ$50m of new work. LYC down 1.6% despite receiving approval for its Bukit Ketam site in Malaysia. In economic news, the value of new loan commitments for housing rose in June, up 6.2%. The CBA services PMI was revised lower to 58.2 in July. The 10-year bond yield steady at 0.81% and the AUD steady at 71.74c. Asian markets little changed with Japan down 0.04% and China flat. General Advice Only See more
09.01.2022 Dow up 185 (+0.7%). Rallied from mid-morning into the close and finished near the session high; at worst down 56, at best up 193. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all continued their multi-day streaks of gains. European markets all weaker. SPI Futures down 15 (-0.25%). Stocks shifted from fairly directionless early trading to strength in the afternoon but there were no clear catalysts in play. The path of least resistance has been higher on the back of the usual suspects, particularl...y monetary stimulus. Sentiment has also been helped by big earnings beats and more corporate commentary about positive earnings estimate revision trends. In addition, despite concerns from economic data that the recovery may be leveling off, positive economic surprise momentum remains near record highs. Coronavirus cases, hospitalisations and deaths are trending down in the US and vaccine optimism remains fairly elevated. There is also increasing talk about the potential for a rotation out of growth and into cyclicals. Trump said he could sign an executive order on evictions, enhanced unemployment benefits and a payroll tax suspension as soon as this weekend. This followed somewhat downbeat headlines surrounding negotiations with congressional Democrats over a fifth coronavirus relief package. US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims came in better than feared ahead of nonfarm payrolls tonight, where risk seems to be skewed to the downside. Trump to announce 10% tariff on some Canadian aluminium. Q2 earnings season is still very busy although this is the last peak week. Nearly 85% of the S&P 500 has already reported. The big themes have already been noted out in terms of record beat rates against low expectations, 2H uncertainty, at-home strength, consumer resilience (stimulus has helped), aggressive cost-cutting, elevated coronavirus-related costs and capacity/inventory constraints. Gold added 1%, posting its 14th gain of the past 15 sessions and setting a new all-time high. WTI crude settled down 0.6%. Iron ore up 2.5%. Base metals mainly stronger. General Advice Only See more
06.01.2022 A good visual when looking at daily movements of the ASX200
05.01.2022 HEADLINES Victorian lockdown extended for another two weeks at least. US tech selloff came amid warnings about out of control valuations and rise in implied volatility VIX spike unlikely to be pointing to market crash (US) Downbeat US executives dump most stock in a month since 2015 ... Pelosi, Mnuchin agree to avoid government shutdown, saying battle over stimulus funding won't delay stopgap bill Trump administration ratcheting up pressure on FDA to get a vaccine approved before Election Day Chief adviser for White House vaccine program sees a very low chance of coronavirus vaccine by Election Day Fed officials downplay chances of updated rate guidance at upcoming policy meeting Biden leads Trump by 8 points in Pennsylvania, 3 in Florida (Politico), up by 2 points in North Carolina White House says it does not expect US government shutdown at month's end ECB is likely to step up its crisis response later this year according to economists Beijing allowing faster gains in the yuan as it seeks to cheapen imports and bolster weak consumer spending Germany's factory rebound loses pace even as exports surge Global views on economy turn sharply negative, according to a PEW survey Global Times opinion piece says China may reduce Treasury holdings by ~20% Xi vows to never surrender to foreign interference, setting combative tone amid US-China tensions Investment banking and trading revenues hit an eight-year high in first half of 2020 (US) General Advice Only See more
05.01.2022 Update: The market is lacking conviction. Volumes are dropping. Interest is low. There are sell signals around on a number of markets and stocks short term. We are increasingly concerned that the equity markets have limited upside without a medical solution. We are poised to catch the bottom of the market and any new uptrend. Whilst we wait we are trading individual stocks whilst retaining an otherwise ‘sidelines’ stance, albeit with gold and material stocks preferred. Whilst opportunities arise as the market trend fades we are likely to wait for results before buying rather than taking the risk over results. Entered into select gold, materials, and other select large caps. Victorian cases accelerating still. Talk of longer lock downs not ideal for the market. Selective and patience is the game. General Advice Only
02.01.2022 Lunch time update: The ASX 200 is up 41 points to 6048 (+0.7%). Technology and consumer staples leading the push higher. All sectors in positive territory. APT up 3.5%, XRO up 2.4% and APX up 1.9%. The All Tech index up 1.9%. FMG lifting 3.4%, shipments ahead of guidance and C1 costs lower vs quarter ago. MQG is firming 1.3% on its quarterly update, operating net profit contribution slightly down vs quarter ago. No guidance. RIO up 0.8% after releasing results last night. JHC... down 3.2% despite Q2 EPS coming in ahead of consensus. The big four banks are all improving, CBA up 0.3%, to recognise pre-tax customer remediation provisions of $300m. MMM is surging 28%, expects FY20 revenue growth of at least 70% vs prior guided 30%. IFL down 5.88% on its funds management update. On the economic front, dwellings approved unexpectedly dropped 4.9% in June, missing market expectations of a 1.5% lift. Dow Futures down 25 points. General Advice Only See more
