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23.01.2022 22 June: Once again it was Sterling and Oil that were at the centre of the action, in what was otherwise a choppy but relatively rangebound session which saw mixed results for the US$; higher against the Aud$ but generally steady/lower elsewhere. Sterling bounced strongly as hawkish comments from the BoE’s chief economist Andy Haldane propelled it higher, counteracting BOE Governor, Mark Carney’s dovish outlook of the previous session, by saying that a partial removal of mone...tary stimulus would be prudent relatively soon. In the oil market, WTI fell by 2% despite the Energy Information Administration reporting that weekly inventories fell by more than expected, by 2.45 mio barrels. The price action was volatile but ended lower due to the ongoing concerns over the growing oil glut, and it looks as though there may have plenty of room on the downside in the days/week’s ahead. Stocks were a little lower, once again dragged down by the oil price. Thursday will be fairly thin on the ground although we start off the 20 June with the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, which could create some waves although no change to policy is expected. That aside, there is nothing else from either Asia or the EU, and just we weekly Jobless Claims and the House Price Index to come from the US. Expect it to be mostly rangebound until Friday, although WTI may remain volatile. Have a good day http://ow.ly/30QY30cN82z See more

20.01.2022 14 June: Tuesday has been a choppy & rangebound session, with little direction seen anywhere apart from Sterling which is higher after the UK CPI unexpectedly rose to a 4 year high of 2.9% yy, as traders wait on today’s FOMC outcome. US stocks are a little higher too, trading just below their record highs. Wednesday is going to be a busy one, starting with the NZ Current Account and Food Price Index , to be followed later in the Asian session by the Australian WBC Consumer C...onfidence (June) , the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Urban Investment figures (all for May). Europe will focus on the German (CPI, exp -0.2%mm, +1.5%yy; HICP, exp 1.4%yy) the EU Industrial Production and Unemployment and also the UK Unemployment Change (exp +10k). The US will be busy ahead of the main act, being the FOMC interest rate decision, with the release of the May CPI (exp 0.0% mm, 2.0% yy), Retail Sales (exp +0.2% mm) and Business Inventories (exp -0.2%). The Fed will be the focus though at which a hike is still expected, but given the recently soft tone to the US data and employment growth, Janet Yellen may provide a slightly more dovish/cautious outlook than previously anticipated. If she remains hawkish, then look for a surge in the dollar. http://ow.ly/TLpQ30czql6 See more

17.01.2022 20 June: The US$ is higher on Monday after New York Fed President, William Dudley expressed confidence that rising wages will help revive domestic inflation, which has shown signs of softening recently. He added that he thought that tightening labor market should help drive up inflation, offsetting concerns that stubbornly low inflation might not allow policy-makers to raise rates further the rest of this year. US stocks liked his comments with both the S+P and the DJI finish...ing at yet another all-time high, while commodities remain under pressure on the back of the higher dollar. Tuesday may be a relatively quiet affair given the lack of market-moving economic data although there are several central bank speeches due. The RBA Minutes will probably be the highlight of the Asian session, with the EU Current Account, German PPI being the points of focus in Europe. Traders will also look to the BOE Governor, Mark Carney, who will be making his Mansion House speech, which could cause some volatility in Cable although I suspect most of the focus will be on the ongoing Brexit talks. Both the SNB’s Jordan and the Fed’s Fischer and Kaplan are also speaking, with Fischer’s comments likely to be the main focus. Elsewhere, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory will also be released late in the US session, but that aside, there is nothing else to come from the US apart from the Current Account. Kiwi traders should note that the Global Dairy Trade Index will be released at midday, London time. http://ow.ly/FniB30cJ3Zr See more

14.01.2022 15 June: It was a tale of two halves today, with the US data (CPI/Retail Sales) missing expectations and sending the US$ lower, ahead of the Fed rate hike which ensured a quick reversal, especially after Janet Yellen was slightly more hawkish than expected. The Fed kept its inflation forecast for 2018 and 2019 unchanged and also maintained its previous interest rate projections for 2017 and 2018, with one more hike proposed for this year. The upshot has been a selloff/recover...y in the US$, with the opposite result in the metals. WTI has been the main directional mover of the session, falling 3.5% after the release of the US inventory data, which came in a long way above the expected declines. Stocks have been choppy/sideways although the DJI did squeeze to a new record high and made a new record-high close. Thursday will be another busy session, leading off with the NZ GDP (exp 0.7% qq, 2.7%yy) and the Australian Unemployment (exp +10K, 5.7%, PR; 64.8%). The focus in Europe will be on the BOE Interest Rate Decision (No change expected to policy or to the MPC Vote count (7/1)) and on the UK Retail Sales (exp -0.8%mm, +1.9%yy). The US will be busy again in disseminating the Fed decision, but also with plenty of secondary data, including the New York State Empire Mfg Index, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Import/Export Index, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production and the NAHB Housing Market Index. http://ow.ly/wUmD30cBo0t See more

07.01.2022 13 June: The dollar is mixed against the major counterparts on Tuesday, with Cable lower on the UK political uncertainty while the Yen is stronger, as some mild safe-haven demand appeared following the selloff in the NASDAQ which has continued at the start of the week. Elsewhere it has been mostly choppy, but without much direction, with the Euro doing little and the commodity bloc also more or less unchanged. The S+P and the DJI are both fairly steady, as is WTI, while the m...etals are slightly lower. Tuesday will have some secondary data to deal with, although the real focus will be on tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting/IR Decision /Press Conference/Statement at which a rate hike is generally expected despite the recent soft bout of US data. Ahead of that though, today sees the NAB Australian Business Conditions/Confidence, while Europe gets the UK CPI for May (exp 0.2% mm, 2.7% yy), the German Wage Price Index and the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey. The US has just the PPI and the US NFIB Business Optimism Index, although oil traders will look to the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory for guidance. Have a good day. http://ow.ly/4GfK30cxnS2 See more