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24.01.2022 Toby reflects on the performance of Ancestry in last week's Hareeba Stakes and the perils of backing short priced last start winners.

23.01.2022 Caulfield Guineas Edition of Glamour Tips

23.01.2022 Beware! The Australian Derby winner may bite you Explosive Jack possibly the only horse to have won the Tasmanian and Australian Derby was not the only rough result for punters on Saturday afternoon. Last years winner Quick Thinker strolled into win the Chairman’s Handicap. His figures since the Derby win were 5,14,5,7,5 & 8 mostly at odds considerably shorter than the 16-1 he started on Saturday. Derby winners are like that. They invariably do something special later in the...ir careers. Angel of Truth came second to Addeybb and Verry Elegant after a string of poor starts. To write off a Derby winner at long odds is to ignore the form of such horses as Naturalism, Bone Crusher Mahogny Octagonal, It’s a Dundeel, Starcraft, Clangalang, Durbridge Dulcify and Dr Grace. It’s a good horse’s race. At Caulfield a lot of races are level weights, weight for age or compressed weight scales. In theory this should mean that the favourite and top three horses should do better than over the past weeks. That’s the theory anyway. Caulfield Race 4 Mr Quickie (1) So Si Bon (2) Creedence (5) & Iconoclasm (3) Race 5 Capricco (7) Shelby Cobra (1) La Mexicana (2) & Bella Nipotina Race 9 Felicia (6) How Womantic (3) Paul’s Regret (11) & Lavarod (1) Sydney Race 4 Najmaty (2) Race 6 Amish Boy (8) Race 8 Verry Elleegant (7) Race 9 Nettoyer (5) Theme Bet Our theme bet for Saturday is negotiating styles and outcomes Race 1 Declares War (3) Race 2 Approach Discreet (3) Race 5 The Gloves are Off (17) Race 6 King’s Ransom (6) and Race 8 Oh, So Rewarding (9) If all these horses get over the line on Saturday and you take a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 2 3 4 5 & 6 bet costing $13.0, a theoretical dividend of $100,719,107 could be payable or 109 million dollars billion dollars or just under 10% of Tabcorp’s half yearly profit. One possible snag, there might not be enough money in the pool to pay you. Toby’s Titanic {Lay of the Day} Race 6 Starry Legend (its personal}

20.01.2022 Toby has egg on his face.

19.01.2022 As Good as Winx- Well Almost Verry Elleegant is proving to be one of Australia’s greatest ever race- horses. The female Northerly is a perfect description of her by Matthew Stewart. Like the fighting tiger she is at her best when the chips are down and she relishes a fight. She never looks like winning until she does. ... She has been competing at the highest level now since her years as a three year old when she won the Australian Oaks and won at distances from 1400 metres to 2400 metres at weight for age and in Handicaps. Verry Elleegant is also starting to reverse the conversation about English stayers being better then Australasian. Make no mistake the William Haggas trained Addeybb is a serious race horse who has won at Royal Ascot the highest level in the United Kingdom. His connections would not have gone to the cost of bring Addeybb if they had not thought her would be competitive. He is the latest overseas scalp to have been claimed by Verry Elleegaant. Others include Prince of Arran, Finche and the ill fated Anthony Van Dyke. The wrong Freedman horse, the aptly named Stay Inside won the Golden Slipper. Our pick Atorius stormed home to finish seventh in unsuitable conditions but you don’t get paid a dividend for that. Punters should note that the soft conditions favoured front runners and 6 out of the 9 races at Rosehill were won by horses that raced on the pace. The other thing to note is that the wet tracks tend to flatter some of the wins. I hope the Easter Bunny brings you plenty of winners over the weekend. Theme Bet Shoulder Arms! This weeks theme bet is the Military Race 1 Legionnaire (5), Race 3 Marine (1) Race 4 Military Parade (8) Race 5 War Correspondent (2) Race 6 Native Soldier (3) Platoon (7). Get all these horses over the line in what is called Heinz (parlay formula 23456) costing $28.50 and you could be in line for a dividend of $981,049. Expect a call from the TAB after leg 4 discussing cash out options. Caulfield Race 7 Persan (2) Harlam (3) Platoon (7) Hang Man (9) Race 8 Begood Toya Mother, (5) Mr Quickie (1) Riddle Me That (11) Pretty Brazen (6) Race 9 Shandy (9) Re Edit (10) Skyman (2) Somerset Maugham (4) Rosehill Race 3 The Frontman (2), Race 4 Krone (1) Race 6 Personal (6) Angel of Truth (9) Race 8 So Si Bon (1) Toby’s Titanic Lay of the Day Race 6 Caulfield Alfa Oro (6

19.01.2022 Beware the Last Start Winner Ancestry was an obvious pick for the Hareeba Stakes at Mornington. After an unlucky run in the Oakleigh plate, he beat a good field in a Moonee Valley sprint Saturday a fortnight ago by 2.45 lengths eased down. The problem was the price 1.80 for the win. Good horse though he is Ancestry was massive unders.... Statistics show that last winners win 1 out of every 5 races so at odds of 5-1 the correct price for the horse was 6.00. All last start winners share the same characteristics. They are in good form, find it difficult to string two races together and invariably start under the odds. Think of it this way. You are selling your unit in Carlton worth $1,000,000 for 200,000. It is not a sensible commercial decision and if you do it too many times you will be underwater big time. It would have been silly for punters to take on the favourite, but they had other options. One of them was the good mare How Womantic who beat Ancestry home in the Oakleigh Plate and had won at Group level. Starting at the generous odds of 10.00 for the win and 3.00 for the place she loomed to win in last 200 metres before being beaten into second but it didn’t really matter because punters got over twice the price for the place than the favourite was for the win. Less risk and more reward. Works for me. A little nerved up about Bendigo . This meeting does not have the reputation of being a happy place for punters. Can Jamie Kah change that? Bendigo Race 5 Need New Friends (5) Good and Proper (8) Chantrea (1) Race 8 The Candyman (4) Platoon (10) Iron Clad (14) & All Too Huiying Race 9 Thousand Wishes (8) Jittery Jack (2) Fighting Harada (5) & Faretti (11) Sydney I am excited about the prospects of Mizzy (12) in race 6 and Artorius (3) in Race 7 at Rosehill. Take an each way double (Parlay Formula 2) Race 1 Doubtland (2) Race 2 Luna Fox (2) Race 3 Miss Siska Race 6 Mizzy (12) Race 7 Artorius (3) Race 8 Jungle Edge (5) Theme Bet Our theme bet for this week is that he’s just a tiny bit up himself: Race 3 Little Miss Rich (17) Race 4 Fanciful Toff (4), Race 5 The Stylist (9) Race 6 Yulong Status (16) Race 7 Conceited (2). $13.00 will buy you a Super Yankee (Parlay 234 &5). If all these horses get over the line stand in the queue for a well earned collect of $212,674 and learn not to be so critical of people in the future. Toby’s Titanic Lay of the Day Race 3 Bendigo Starry Legend (3)

16.01.2022 Toby waxes lyrical about Verry Elleegant

13.01.2022 Toby reflects on Australian Derby winners and offers a perspective on Saturday's meeting at Caulfield

10.01.2022 Toby talks about Mr Quickie's revival and reflects on Sydney Easter carnivals in years gone by

09.01.2022 Toby has something to say about the relative merits of backing horses that race on the pace and those that leave their run until the last moment.

04.01.2022 Toby’s Reflections