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24.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 25-Nov-20 CBOT Wheat Mar'21 617.50... +13.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Mar'21 308.37 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 620.25 +9.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 309.74 ASX Wheat Jan'21 294.00 0.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 312.50 0.0 Cotton May'21 73.83 -0.8 Cotton SWAP May'21 501.72 -10.6 CBOT Corn Mar'21 432.50 -0.8 CBOT Corn Dec'21 412.25 +1.3 CBOT Soybeans Jan'21 1191.25 -0.3 AUD / USD 0.7358 +0.0073 Crude Oil 43.06 Dow Jones 29591.27 See more
23.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Feed Grains: current crop and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop DOWN $1-$2/mt Markets saw wheat lead the charge higher overnight with corn/beans bounced from mid-session falls to finish either side of unchanged. US wheat markets were significantly higher across all three exchanges as deteriorating US crop conditions drove the rally. EU wheat tracked US markets higher with EU exp...ort activity also fuelling prices. CME corn futures initially traded lower on profit-taking, however threatenign South America weather, specifically a building La Nina, saw buyers step into the market and cut session losses to a minimal amount. Similarly CME soybeans recovered earlier session lows to finish slightly firmer for similar reasons. Both ICE canola and Matif rapeseed were sharply lower. Our currency is trading at 0.7353, extending our day gains by a further 30 points overnight. Cash wheat and coarse grain markets should have a slightly firmer tone (less so barley) whilst canola will be a touch softer. Wheat basis will be weaker by 5+ cents. Wheat: Tunisia bought an estimated 92,000mt of soft wheat in tender at US$275.49-$276.97/mt CNF Tunisia bought an estimated 75,000mt of durum wheat in tender at US$333.49-$370.29/mt CNF Thailand tendering for 160,000mt feed wheat for Jan-Mar'21 shipment Ukraine has used 66.5% of the 20/21 wheat export quote, shipping 11.63 million mt so far US winter wheat 43% good/excellent condition (vs. 46% one week ago, 52% one year ago) Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): Tunisia bought an estimated 75,000mt of feed barley in tender at US$237.97-$240.77/mt CNF Turkey buys about 350,000mt corn in tender for Dec'20/Jan'21 shipment at US245.30-$250.90/mt CNF Turkey buys 155,000mt of feed barley in tender at US$226.40-$237.80/mt CNF Thailand tendering for 80,000mt feed barley for Feb-Mar'21 shipment Oilseed (canola): Rumours that China are switching Feb'21 US soybean purchases to Brazilian origin
23.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 02-Oct-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 570.25... -7.8 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 291.66 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 590.75 -5.3 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 302.15 ASX Wheat Jan'21 304.00 +5.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 321.00 +5.5 Cotton May'21 67.37 +0.1 Cotton SWAP May'21 468.90 +0.7 CBOT Corn Dec'20 382.75 +3.8 CBOT Corn Dec'21 393.25 +1.8 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1023.50 0.0 AUD / USD 0.7184 -0.0000 Crude Oil 38.72 -1.50 Dow Jones 27816.90 +35.2 See more
22.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop UNCHANGED and next year’s crop UP $1-2/mt Feed Grains: current crop UNCHANGED and next year’s crop UP $1-2/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt A mixed night offshore wheat and corn firming while soybeans were lower. CBOT and KCBT wheat firmed on dryness concerns out of Russia, however, gains were capped by recent weakness in Russian FOB values. EU wheat tried to follow US markets higher but gains were limited by R...ussian weakness. Corn rebounded from early session losses to post modest gains on strong cash markets and positioning ahead of the USDA stocks report. In oilseeds, soybeans succumbed to harvest pressure and position squaring with both ICE canola and Matif rapeseed following the soy-complex lower. Our currency is trading at 0.7074, up 24 points. Cash wheat and coarse grain markets should be unchanged to a touch firmer with canola a fraction softer. Basis will be weaker to start. Wheat: Jordan has purchased 120,000 mt of milling wheat at US$257.90/mt CNF Pakistan has issued a tender to purchase 300,000 mt of wheat. US winter wheat is 35% planted, up 15% from last week. US weekly wheat export inspection of 563,427 mt - within trade expectations Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): Iran has issued a tender to purchase 200,000 mt of corn. USDA reports exporters sold 110,800 mt of corn to Japan & 207,140 to an unknown destination. US corn is rated 61% good/excellent, unchanged a week earlier with harvest 15% complete. US weekly corn export inspection of 806,639 mt - within trade expectations Oilseed (canola): USDA reports exporters sold 218,300 mt of soybeans to an unknown destination. EU 20/21 rapeseed imports as of Sep 27 have reached 1.45 million mt, down 25 yoy. US beans is rated 64% good/excellent, up 1% week on week with harvest 20% complete. US weekly soybeans export inspection of 1,211,733 mt - within trade expectations
22.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 23-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 558.00... +3.3 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 286.05 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 582.50 +1.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 298.61 ASX Wheat Jan'21 298.00 +1.0 ASX Wheat Jan'21 298.00 +1.0 Cotton May'21 67.28 +0.2 Cotton SWAP May'21 469.35 +1.3 CBOT Corn Dec'20 369.25 -0.5 CBOT Corn Dec'21 387.75 -0.5 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1019.75 -2.8 AUD / USD 0.7167 +0.0002 Crude Oil 39.60 +0.29 Dow Jones 27288.18 +140.5 See more
22.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 28-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 549.75... CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 287.50 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 576.00 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 301.22 ASX Wheat Jan'21 300.00 +2.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 316.00 +18.0 Cotton May'21 67.35 +0.4 Cotton SWAP May'21 478.36 +1.6 CBOT Corn Dec'20 363.50 CBOT Corn Dec'21 383.25 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1000.00 AUD / USD 0.7040 +0.0014 Crude Oil 40.25 -0.06 Dow Jones 27173.96 See more
20.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 30-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 549.50 -0.8... CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 282.96 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 576.75 -1.5 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 296.99 ASX Wheat Jan'21 301.00 0.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 315.00 0.0 Cotton May'21 66.80 Cotton SWAP May'21 468.61 CBOT Corn Dec'20 364.75 -2.0 CBOT Corn Dec'21 383.00 -1.5 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 993.00 -3.3 AUD / USD 0.7135 +0.0008 Crude Oil 39.29 -1.31 Dow Jones 27452.66 -131.4 See more
19.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop DOWN $1-$2/mt and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Feed Grains: current crop DOWN $1-$2/mt and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Generally weaker markets overnight. Wheat was down on reduces fear of winterkill (as most traders recalled that on previous occasions winterkill rumours always tend to be worse than the fact). Corn tried for lower on talks that US corn area ...could increase if there was any wheat winterkill, but ended the night about unchanged. Oilseed was mixed with beans marginally down without China to drive markets up. ICE canola big jump up on local crusher demand and EU canola down a tad for no real reason. Our currency about unchanged at about 0.7750. We will not show anywhere near the downwards move (like we did not show anywhere near the upwards move. We think markets here will likely start the day down a buck or two in wheat and coarse grains and unchanged to down a buck in canola. Wheat basis will likely be stronger again today. Wheat: Algeria bought 30-60,000 mt milling wheat at around US$321/mt CNF. Jordan bought 60,000 mt hard milling wheat for Sep shipment at US$272/mt CNF. Philippines passed on latest wheat tender as prices above US$300/mt CNF. Recent favourable weather indicates record high China wheat production acc. to Refinitiv. Fears of US (and EU) winterkill abated a bit overnight. Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): South Korea's Major Feedmill Group bought 69,000mt corn in tender at US$295.40/mt CNF. Satellite images show higher corn yields, raising Brazil corn to 105.2 million mt, acc. to Refinitiv. Oilseed (canola): Malaysian palm oil futures ended more than 2% higher extending gains into a third session.
18.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 21-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 575.00... +18.8 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 289.85 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 594.75 +13.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 299.81 ASX Wheat Jan'21 296.00 +10.0 ASX Wheat Jan'21 296.00 +10.0 Cotton May'21 67.35 Cotton SWAP May'21 462.29 CBOT Corn Dec'20 378.50 +3.3 CBOT Corn Dec'21 393.25 +3.8 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1043.50 +15.0 AUD / USD 0.7289 +0.0005 Crude Oil 41.11 +0.14 Dow Jones 27657.42 See more
17.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 25-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 549.75... +0.8 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 286.42 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 576.00 +0.5 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 300.10 ASX Wheat Jan'21 298.00 -4.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 298.00 -4.0 Cotton May'21 66.99 +0.1 Cotton SWAP May'21 474.94 -0.2 CBOT Corn Dec'20 363.50 -5.0 CBOT Corn Dec'21 383.25 -4.0 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1000.00 -14.5 AUD / USD 0.7052 +0.0009 Crude Oil 40.31 +0.38 Dow Jones 26815.44 +52.3 See more
17.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Feed Grains: current crop next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to UP $1/mt Markets were mixed to finish the week with corn/soybeans rising, while wheat fell. The US wheat complex finished lower on the lack of fresh news with weather being assessed in EU and Black Sea, along with a firmer USD. EU wheat finished unchanged to a touch firmer, finding som...e support given the Euro weakness. Corn edged higher despite an ongoing corn harvest that is expected to ramp up in October. Soybeans, similar to corn, were up despite ongoing harvest and no news of Chinese buying. ICE canola rose on the back of stronger soy prices and a weaker Canadian dollar. Our currency is trading lower at 0.7028, down 44 points from Friday night. Cash wheat and coarse grain markets are expected to be unchanged to down $1/mt in both the current and new crop to start the week. Canola will have a slightly supportive tone. Wheat basis will be a touch firmer. Wheat: Coceral has left its forecast of EU soft wheat production near unchanged at 129.2 million mt. Ukraine 20/21 wheat exports to date at 7.9 million mt, total grain exports down 10.6% y.o.y. Funds SOLD 6,500 contracts of CME wheat. Feed grains (barley/sorghum): South Korea's KFA rejected tender offer for 68,000mt of Brazil's corn at US$224/mt CNF. China's Aug'20 corn imports of 1.02 million mt, up 340% y.o.y Coceral has cut cut its forecast of EU barley production by 1.2 million mt to 62.5 million mt. Coceral has cut cut its forecast of EU corn production by 1.8 million mt to 62.8 million mt. Funds BOUGHT 15,000 contracts of CME corn. Oilseed (canola): USDA reported a sale of 100,000mt of soybean meal to "unknown" destination. Funds BOUGHT 2,500 contracts of CME soybeans.
16.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop DOWN $1/mt and next year's crop UNCHANGED Feed Grains: current crop and next year's crop UNCHANGED Canola: current crop and next year's crop UNCHANGED The overnight ag markets were mixed with wheat ending lower, as corn continued to climb and soybeans settled flat. US wheat markets settled lower with CME down on profit taking and grower selling after the Dec'20 contract hit 8 month highs following a bullish US production and stocks data, KCBT and ...MGEX futures also posted losses. EU wheat markets edged marginally lower on the back of declining US wheat complex but further downside move was halted with conditions in Black Sea underpinning market. CME corn futures extended gains from the previous session hitting a seven month high on tight supplies and strong weekly export sales which were well above trade expectations. CME soybeans ended near unchanged as grower selling offset the bullish USDA stocks data from Wednesday and strong weekly export sales. ICE Canadian canola futures declined on the back of soyoil losses and hedging from the commercial buyers, Matif rapeseed futures posted gains. Our currency is trading at 0.7189 up 2 points from overnight. We will likely see all our grains/oilseed near unchanged. Wheat basis to start out near unchanged. Wheat: Ukraine 2020 wheat plantings currently at 1.5 million Ha of estimated 6.1 million ha. USDA report 20/21 wheat export sales of 506,200 mt to 24th Sep'20 - above trade expectations. Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): Iran's SLAL buys corn with estimated volume between 140,000mt to 300,000 mt. Syria tendering for 50,000 mt of cor along with 50,000mt of soybean meal. USDA reported 411.1 million Bu of corn used for fuel alcohol in Aug'20 vs 454.6 million Bu in Aug'19. Ukraine 2020 barley plantings currently at 61,200 Ha of estimated 946,300 ha. USDA report 20/21 corn export sales of 2,027,100 mt to 24th Sep'20 - above trade expectations. Oilseed (canola): Argentina planning temporary 3% cut to 30% on soybean and meal export taxes till Jan'21. USDA report 120,000 mt soybean sale to Egypt for the 20/21 marketing campaign. USDA reported 175.7 million Bu of US beans crushed in Aug'20 vs 177.3 million Bu in Aug'19. USDA report 20/21 soybean export sales of 2,591,000 mt to 24th Sep'20 - above trade expectations.
15.01.2022 Harvest update - Please find a summary of the 2020/21 harvest below: East Coast: Harvest in QLD is all but finished with small amounts of grain being delivered. Harvest in NSW is now, estimated to be more than half way done with GrainCorp reporting an all-time record of 362,000mt for the most grain delivered in a single day. As the harvest moves south, GrainCorp single day deliveries are expected to reach between 400,000mt - 450,000mt, which will confirm east coast winter gra...in production of 29-30 million mt. The weather conditions last week have been mostly favorable apart from Sunday/Monday that saw harvest activities come to a halt in SNSW - there are few reports of hail hitting wheat and lupin crops across Riverina area. BOM forecasts clear skies in NSW over the next 5 days which will add more pace to the harvest. Harvest in VIC is cranking up amid dry weather last week with Mallee reaching 38 degrees on Thursday. Similarly to NSW, BOM forecasts favorable harvest conditions for VIC. GrainCorp has released it's third harvest update of the season reporting a whooping 2.34 million mt of grain in their system with QLD, NSW and VIC receiving 23,000mt, 1.74 million mt and 614,000mt, respectively. South Australia: Harvest in SA has ramped up following much warmer weather last week. Viterra released it's weekly harvest report, and has received more than 1.2 million mt of grain in its system with Western and Central region receivals reaching 423,626mt and 553,641mt, respectively, while Eastern region received 269,163mt. Viterra's Port Lincoln site has broken its daily receival record two days in a row on Tuesday 17th of November with 13,148mt delivered and Wednesday 18th of November with 13,512mt delivered. We estimate harvest in SA to be 45-47% complete. Western Australia: Harvest receivals in WA have improved pace with warm and dry weather last week. CBH reported 1.66 million mt of grain received in their system last Friday, taking total harvest deliveries to 4.86 million mt. Since then, we estimate CBH to have received 950,000mt of grain, taking the cumulative total to 5.82 million mt. See more
14.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop UNCHANGED and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Feed Grains: current crop UNCHANGED and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED Mixed, but generally well supported, markets overseas overnight. US and Black Sea wheat all back up again on latest Egypt sale (which was at highest level in almost 2 years). EU exchanges up modestly to follow but not much enthusiasm. US Corn was up a fraction despite solid China and ..."unknown" buying. US corn harvest progressing well so that is helping to rein in any corn rallies for now. Oilseed mixed with US beans up on China buying and canola exchanges unchanged to down a fraction in sympathy with veg oils. Our currency down a further 10 points to 0.7170 this morning. We will likely start the day close to unchanged in all the old crop markets. New crop markets will likely be up a buck or two in wheat and coarse grains whilst canola should be about unchanged. Wheat basis should be unchanged to a few cents weaker. Wheat: Egypt bought 405,000 mt Russian wheat at US$256.55/mt CNF - highest in almost 2 years. South Korea's MFG rejected all feed wheat offers in latest tender - lowest offer US$255/mt CNF. Kazakhstan harvested 14.8 million hectares of grain - 93.4% of total area . Russia exported 10.1 million mt wheat so far this season - second highest export pace recorded. Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): The Korea Feed Association bought 65,000 mt corn at US$229/mt CNF. South Korea's NOFI bought 202,000 mt corn in tender at US$228.49/mt CNF. India's's corn crop Will be 19.88 million mt - up from 19.63 LY according to the Ministry of Ag. USDA reported the sale of 140,000 mt US corn to China and 320,000 mt to "unknown". Oilseed (canola): USDA reported the sale of 266,000 mt US beans to China and 264,000 mt to "unknown". India's's soybean crop Will be 13.58 million mt - up from 11.21 LY according to the Ministry of Ag. Argentina's soy crushing will drop 9.5% this year says the CIARA-CEC grains exporting chamber.
12.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Feed Grains: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Generally weaker market overnight driven by US harvest pressure, profit taking and fund selling. Wheat was down across the board (including in the Black Sea) on better weather outlook in EU/Ukraine and general profit taking. Corn was down on US harvest pressure and... some chunky fund selling, We also saw Dalian corn futures in China down on profit taking. Soybeans were down on fund selling and the lack of China buying for the day (China had been buying for pretty much every day for two weeks). Canola exchanges were down in sympathy with beans as well as with vegoils. Our currency up just a fraction to 0.7048. We saw most of the fall already play out in our markets yesterday so we will likely start the day unchanged or possibly even down a dollar across the board. Wheat basis will be about unchanged to a cent or two weaker. Wheat: Drought-hit wheat ares in Argentina wheat might get some rain relief over the weekend. USDA reported weekly wheat export sales of 351,300 mt - about as expected. IGC kept their global wheat estimate unchanged at 763,000 mt. Wetter weather forecast for the next 14 days across EU and Ukraine to help the winter plant. Funds BOUGHT 1,500 contracts of CME wheat. Feed grains (barley/sorghum): IGC cut global corn production by 6 million mt to a still record high of 1.16 billion mt. USDA reported weekly US corn export sales of 2,139,000 mt (and 260,000 mt sorghum to China). Funds SOLD 17,500 contracts of CME corn. Oilseed (canola): USDA reports weekly bean export sales at 3,194,000 mt - at top end of expectations. IGC kept their global bean estimate unchanged at 373,000 mt. Funds SOLD 13,500 contracts of CME soybeans.
11.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 01-Oct-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 578.00... +28.5 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 296.27 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 596.00 +19.3 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 305.50 ASX Wheat Jan'21 299.00 -2.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 315.50 +0.5 Cotton May'21 67.27 +0.5 Cotton SWAP May'21 469.22 +2.9 CBOT Corn Dec'20 379.00 +14.3 CBOT Corn Dec'21 391.50 +8.5 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1023.50 +30.5 AUD / USD 0.7168 +0.0006 Crude Oil 39.29 Dow Jones 27781.70 +329.0 See more
10.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 16-Feb-21 CBOT Wheat May'21 641.25... CBOT Wheat Swap May'21 303.67 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 635.75 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 301.06 ASX Wheat Mar'21 295.00 0.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 301.50 0.0 Cotton May'22 82.84 Cotton SWAP May'22 533.83 CBOT Corn May'21 536.50 CBOT Corn Dec'21 448.75 CBOT Soybeans May'21 1371.25 AUD / USD 0.7778 +0.0019 Crude Oil 60.12 +0.65 Dow Jones See more
10.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop UP $1-2/mt and next years's crop UP $3-5/mt Feed Grains: current crop UP $1-2/mt and next years's crop UP $3-5/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to UP $1/mt Markets were firm to finish the week with all three key agricultural commodities finishing higher. US wheat complex surged higher driven by strong fund activity amid continued dryness in Black Sea. EU wheat finished modestly higher on little fresh news other than firming B...lack Sea values. Corn edged higher on more Chinese buying despite harvest pressure. Soybeans were higher, underpinned by continuous Chinese buying. ICE canola eased on the back of activity of commercial hedgers. Our currency is trading lower at 0.7290 down 34 points from yesterday evening. Cash wheat and coarse grain markets are expected to be $1-2/mt higher in the current crop and up $3-5/mt in the new crop to start the week. Canola should be about unchanged to a buck higher in both current and new crop. Basis should be weaker yet again to start the week. Wheat: Pakistan tendering for 300,000 mt wheat - result out over next few days. Tunisia purchased 50,000 mt of durum wheat, while 42,000 of soft wheat was rejected. Algeria increased it's tolerance level for 12.5% protein wheat to 0.5% bug damage. Ukraine 20/21 wheat exports at 7 million mt, total grain exports down 10.2% y.o.y. Funds BOUGHT 15,000 CME wheat contracts. Feed Grains (barley/sorghum): Algeria tendering for 50,000 mt feed barley - results out over next few days. Tunisia purchased 75,000 mt of feed barley with the lowest offer at US$223/mt CNF. US exporters sell 210,000 mt of corn to China for 20/21 season. APK-Inform reports China imported 97% more Ukrainian barley between Jul-Aug than last season. Funds BOUGHT 10,000 CME corn contracts. Oilseed (canola): US exporters sell 132,000 mt of soybeans to China for 20/21 season. Funds BOUGHT 15,000 CME soybeans contracts.
08.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop and next year's crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Feed Grains: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to DOWN $1/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop DOWN $1-$2/mt All three key agriculture commodities finished a touch softer overnight as the market eagerly awaits USDA stocks data. US wheat futures, led by KCBT which paced the move, were softer on reported rains in Black Sea and Argentina. EU wheat was also weaker with a firm Euro pressuri...ng values. CME corn crept lower on US harvest pressure as dry conditions in the US midwest will allow solid harvest activity. In oilseeds, soybeans were down for similar reasons (along with no China purchases), despite posting earlier session gains. ICE canola dipped on weaker soyoil and palm prices as harvest pressure continues, whilst Matif rapeseed was also softer. Our currency is trading at 0.7131, up 40 points from last night. Cash wheat and coarse grain markets should have a slightly softer tone today with CME wheat basis to be roughly unchanged (but firmer vs. KCBT). Canola should be weaker. Wheat: Turkey tendering to buy 135,000mt of wheat Thailand tendering to buy 213,000mt of feed wheat in tender for Nov'20 and Jan'21 shipment CEC forecast South Africa's 2020 wheat production at 2.02 million mt (vs. 1.53 million mt last year) Funds SOLD 2,000 CME wheat contracts Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): CEC forecast South Africa to harvest 15.42 million mt of maize in 2020 (down slightly from August) Funds SOLD 10,000 CME corn contracts Oilseed (canola): US exporters sell 100,000mt soybeans to Mexico Funds SOLD 4,000 CME beans contracts
08.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop DOWN $6-8/mt and next year’s crop DOWN $4-5/mt Feed Grains: current crop DOWN $4-6/mt and next year’s crop DOWN $3-4/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop about unchanged. Markets overnight were broadly weaker with wheat markets leading the way. US wheat gave up early session gains to close sharply lower across all three exchanges as traders positioned themselves ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. EU wheat tried for higher but ultimately su...ccumbed to spill-over weakness from US markets and the strengthening Euro to close lower. Corn followed wheat markets lower, however, losses were limited by on-going dryness concerns in Brazil. In oilseeds, soybeans closed lower on a mixture of spill-over weakness from wheat/corn as well as indications that China's demand is slowing. ICE canola was firmer while Matif rapeseed finished flat. Our currency is trading at 0.7358, up 13 points from yesterday evening. Markets should start out lower for wheat/barley markets with sorghum unchanged while canola is likely to be unchanged. Wheat basis will be firmer to start the day. Wheat: Thailand purchased 60,000 mt of feed wehat at US$282.50/mt CNF for Jan'21 shipment. South Korea purchased 80,000 mt of US wheat at between US$270.44-$245.66/mt FOB on a range of grades. Taiwan purchased 82,220 mt of US wheat at between US$283.11-$253.21/mt FOB on a range of grades. SovEcon raised it's forecast of Russian 20/21 wheat production by 900,000 mt to 85.3 million mt. SovEcon raised it's forecast of Russian 20/21 wheat exports by 1 million mt to 40.8 million mt. Refinitiv lowered it's forecast of Argentinian 20/21 wheat production by 1% to 17.1 million mt. Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): Thailand purchased 79,000 mt of feed barley at US$235-$236/mt CNF for Feb'21/Mar'21 shipment ANEC is forecasting Brazilian corn exports to reach 5.2 million mt in November. Rabobank has forecast Brazilian 20/21 corn production at 107.2 million mt. Oilseed (canola): Rabobank has forecast Brazilian 20/21 soybean production at 130 million mt. ANEC is forecasting Brazilian soybean exports to reach 0.83 million mt in November. Reports that Chinese importers are looking to washout soybean purchases for Dec/Jan.
07.01.2022 Rookwood Weir AgForce has contacted the Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy with some questions about how Reef regulations and ‘no net decline’ in... water quality requirements might impact new irrigated cropping developments resulting from the Rookwood Weir. They have advised that ‘commercial risk regarding obtaining approvals, use of the water and complying with the regulatory framework required for an activity is a risk borne by the water purchaser’. Water purchasers will have to comply with a Sunwater Land Management Code of Practice, to be developed with industry and government and required under the Weir’s federal EPBC Act approvals to meet water quality objectives. The Code is intended to help minimise environmental impacts and support compliance with regulation, including for the Reef. Purchasers will be required to provide annual confirmation of their compliance with the Code, relevant best practice management plans, the Reef 2050 Plan and other obligations including environmental authorities. While supportive of new water infrastructure and growth opportunities for agriculture, AgForce has strongly opposed the new Reef regulations as an unnecessary impost on farmers that will not benefit the Reef in terms of water quality. We advise potential purchasers of water from Rookwood Weir to fully factor in the regulatory and other requirements that will apply when considering new cropping development investments as the risk will sit with them. DNRME advises that the Queensland Government, including the Office of the Great Barrier Reef (OGBR), can assist farmers in being able to understand and meet their environmental obligations. The contact in relation to Reef regulations is Sarah Hindmarsh, Reef Policy at OGBR, on 07 3330 5757 #standwithregqld
07.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 17-Feb-21 CBOT Wheat May'21 661.50... +20.3 CBOT Wheat Swap May'21 313.31 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 649.75 +14.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 307.75 ASX Wheat Mar'21 299.00 +4.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 306.00 +1.0 Cotton May'22 83.76 +0.9 Cotton SWAP May'22 539.86 +7.4 CBOT Corn May'21 549.75 +13.3 CBOT Corn Dec'21 457.75 +9.0 CBOT Soybeans May'21 1385.75 +14.5 AUD / USD 0.7758 -0.0021 See more
07.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 24-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 549.00... -9.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 285.08 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 575.50 -7.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 298.84 ASX Wheat Jan'21 302.00 +4.0 ASX Wheat Jan'21 302.00 +4.0 Cotton May'21 66.93 -0.3 Cotton SWAP May'21 472.94 -2.6 CBOT Corn Dec'20 368.50 -0.8 CBOT Corn Dec'21 387.25 -0.5 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 1014.50 -5.3 AUD / USD 0.7076 +0.0002 Crude Oil 39.93 +0.33 Dow Jones 26763.13 -525.0 See more
06.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop and next year's crop UP $7-$9/mt Feed Grains: current crop and next year's crop UP $6-$8/mt Canola: current crop and next year's crop UP $4-$6/mt Bullish night all up and everywhere - all driven by lower than expected US stocks of Wheat/Corn/Beans and ensuing frenetic fund buying! Wheat saw lower US stocks and a predicted lower US crop for next year which lead to funds really putting their buying boots on. EU and Black Sea wheat was already creep...ing up on Russia weather concern so went all in with the US rally when it happened. US corn saw much lower than expected stock levels and funds bought a massive chunk of corn (to the point where it is surprising prices not up more!). Same story in US beans which dragged the canola exchanges up with them. Our currency went up 50 points as well to 0.7160 which took some of the upwards price action out in the translation into A$/mt. We will likely see all our grains/oilseed up by a good chunk. However we are not likely to see the full move and basis will likely be weaker by 5-10 cents today. Wheat: Jordan tendering for 120,000 mt wheat - result out next week. USDA/NASS lowered US wheat stocks at Sep 1st to 2,159 million Bu - the lowest since 2015. USDA/NASS lowered US wheat production to to 1,825 million Bu - down 13 million Bu. Russia's Ag Ministry say grain production will be 125 million mt 82 million mt wheat. Funds BOUGHT 25,000 CME wheat contracts Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): USDA/NASS lowered US corn stocks at Sep 1st to 1,995 million Bu - much lower than expected. Funds BOUGHT 55,000 CME corn contracts Oilseed (canola): USDA/NASS lowered US bean stocks at Sep 1st to 523.5 million Bu - lower than expected. USDA reported the sale of 215,000 mt US beans to "unknown" destination. Funds BOUGHT 30,000 CME beans contracts
05.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop UNCHANGED and next year’s crop UNCHANGED Feed Grains: current crop UNCHANGED and next year’s crop UNCHANGED Canola: current crop and next year’s crop about UNCHANGED. Markets overnight were relative quiet as the US markets were closed to celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday. EU wheat markets closed marginally higher after sliding in line with the US markets in the previous session, as ongoing export demand which is absorbing harvest surplus support...ed values. In the oilseed market, ICE Canadian canola futures were lower in overnight trading weighed down by EU veg and Malaysian palm oil complex as well as prepositioning ahead of the Statscan report, Matif rapeseed futures also ended lower. Our currency is trading at 0.7364 unchanged from late yesterday afternoon. Markets should be roughly unchanged for wheat/barley and canola markets with sorghum to remain well supported. Wheat: Egypt's GASC buys 175,000 mt of Russian wheat between US$261/mt to US$262.60/mt FOB. South Korean flour mill buys 45,000 mt of Australian milling wheat for Feb/Mar'21 shipment. EU 20/21 wheat production at 115.8 million mt in latest estimate - down 100,000 mt m.o.m. IGC lifts 20/21 wheat crop by 1 million mt to 765 million mt. Canada all wheat trade average estimate at 34.6 million mt vs Statscan Oct'20 34.145 million mt. South African 2020 wheat output estimated at 2.149 million mt vs 1.535 million mt for 2019. Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): EU 20/21 usable corn production at 60.2 million mt in latest estimate - unchanged m.o.m. IGC reduces 20/21 corn crop by 10 million mt to 1.146 billion mt. Canada barley trade average estimate at 10.4 million mt vs Statscan Oct'20 10.255 million mt. South African 19/20 corn output estimated to be up 36.7% then 11.275 million mt harvest in 18/19 season. Oilseed (canola): EU 20/21 usable rapeseed production at 15.9 million mt in latest estimate - unchanged m.o.m. Canada canola trade average estimate at 19.3 million mt vs Statscan Oct'20 19.4 million mt. Malaysian palm oil futures fell as Nov'20 exports dropped with India demand dropping by ~50%. EU veg oil markets were flat overnight with November exports drop offset by supply concerns.
05.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 26-Nov-20 CBOT Wheat Mar'21 596.50... -21.0 CBOT Wheat Swap Mar'21 297.50 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 606.75 -13.5 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 302.61 ASX Wheat Jan'21 291.00 -3.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 311.00 -3.0 Cotton May'21 73.21 -0.6 Cotton SWAP May'21 496.86 -4.7 CBOT Corn Mar'21 427.50 -5.0 CBOT Corn Dec'21 410.75 -1.5 CBOT Soybeans Jan'21 1184.00 -7.3 AUD / USD 0.7367 +0.0007 Crude Oil 44.91 Dow Jones 30046.24 See more
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04.01.2022 LACHSTOCK CONSULTING NORTHERN FUTURES UPDATE 29-Sep-20 CBOT Wheat Dec'20 550.25 +6.0... CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'20 285.76 CBOT Wheat Dec'21 578.25 +6.5 CBOT Wheat Swap Dec'21 300.30 ASX Wheat Jan'21 301.00 +1.0 ASX Wheat Jan'22 315.00 -1.0 Cotton May'21 67.09 -0.3 Cotton SWAP May'21 474.13 -2.2 CBOT Corn Dec'20 366.75 +1.5 CBOT Corn Dec'21 384.50 +0.5 CBOT Soybeans Nov'20 996.25 -6.3 AUD / USD 0.7075 +0.0006 Crude Oil 40.60 +0.35 Dow Jones 27584.06 See more
02.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop DOWN $1-2/mt and next year’s crop DOWN $3-5/mt Feed Grains: current crop DOWN $1-2/mt and next year’s crop DOWN $2-4/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UNCHANGED to UP $1/mt All three key ag's sharply lower overnight with funds jumping to the sell side on a broad commodity sell-off. US wheat ended sharply lower across all three exchanges with fund selling and a stronger US dollar the key drivers. EU what also pulled back from recent high...s, closing lower on spill-over weakness from US markets. Corn eased in line with other commodities as funds reduced long positions while the ongoing harvest also added weight. In oilseeds, soybeans like corn and wheat succumbed to fund selling and broader commodity weakness with the market shrugging off further sales to China which had fuelled recent gains. Both Matif rapseed and ICE canola finished lower. Our currency is trading at 0.7222, down 56 points. Cash wheat and coarse grain markets should be weaker to start with canola unchanged to a touch firmer. Basis will be firmer. Wheat: Thailand has reportedly purchased 180,000 mt of feed wheat at around US$257.90/mt CNF. Egypt's GASC has issued a tender for an unspecified amount of wheat with Nov'20 shipment. Taiwan has issued a tender to purchased 91,300 mt of milling wheat from the US. Ukraine has harvested 25.1 million mt of wheat in 20/21, down from 28.3 million mt in 19/20. US spring wheat is 96% harvested with winter wheat 20% planted. US weekly wheat export inspection of 469,939 mt - within trade expectations Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): Saudi Arabia's SAGO purchased 540,000 mt of barley at an average price of US$225.34/mt CNF. Ukraine has harvested 7.8 million mt of barley in 20/21, down from 8.9 million mt in 19/20. US corn is rated 61% good/excellent, up 1% from a week earlier with harvest 5% complete. US weekly corn export inspection of 755,111 mt - within trade expectations Oilseed (canola): USDA reports exporters sold 132,000 mt of soybeans to China, 132,000 mt to Pakistan & 171,000 mt to an unknown destination. US beans is rated 63% good/excellent, unchanged week on week with harvest 6% complete. US weekly soybeans export inspection of 1,310,854 mt - within trade expectations
01.01.2022 Milling wheat: current crop UP $2-$3/mt and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Feed Grains: current crop and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop UP $1-$2/mt Markets resumed yesterday following the long weekend in the US with a bullish tone across the board as our day session gains were extended overnight. US wheat jumped solidly across all three exchanged as freezing US weather conditions have traders worried about potential crop damage. EU whea...t followed US markets higher, however gains were kept in check as the market isn't as worried about crop damage in the EU on the back of the cold weather. Corn was somewhat of a follower of wheat, however harvest delays in Brazil added to the demand equation. Oilseeds were firmer as CME soybeans jumped on the back of a stronger than expected US crush pace. Both ICE canola and Matif rapeseed followed US values higher. The AUD is down 10-15 points to be sitting at 0.7764. We should see our local cash markets push higher again today with wheat basis a touch softer. Wheat: Philippines tendering for 145,000mt of wheat for Apr'21 and Jun'21 shipment US weekly wheat export inspections of 392,555mt - in line with trade expectations Severed cold weather is bringing deep frost as far south as Texas in the US at present Feedgrains (barley/sorghum): Jordan made no purchase in tender but tendering again for 120,000mt of feed barley US weekly corn export inspections of 1,322,412mt - in line with trade expectations Oilseed (canola): NOPA Jan'21 beans crush of 184.654 million bu - second biggest on record US weekly soy export inspections of 809,574mt - below trade expectations
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