J.Jeffery Rural Services | Agriculture

J.Jeffery Rural Services

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24.01.2022 Weeks adventures

21.01.2022 Full on long weekend mustering & drafting

18.01.2022 Mustering ready

17.01.2022 Day of mustering

16.01.2022 Few days fencing

16.01.2022 Friday’s quick lambing marking

13.01.2022 Another day mustering

10.01.2022 Another day done

10.01.2022 Lamb marking season nearly done & dusted

06.01.2022 A WET PERIOD IS UNDERWAY. An increasingly wet period is unfolding across Australia over the next few weeks. We have seen a major weather system already pa...ssed through southern and eastern Australia during the last 48 hours delivering some excessive inland falls, albeit fairly scattered in nature, the evidence is there that this type of weather is expected to ramp up now as we warmup through October. The videographic that you can see below is for the potential rainfall, one can reasonably expect over the next 46 days. It also means that we can see you return to normal weather patterns for a lot of Australia. However due to the increased amount of moisture, there is a likelihood that each of weather event that comes through will produce higher than average rainfall. This video does include the rain that has already fallen during the weekend. This period does lend it self to seeing catchments around creeks, rivers and our water catchments becoming saturated. This is ahead of the peak of the impact of La Niña. The video below also displays a gradual increase in the amount of available moisture building up over northern Australia during the next few weeks, and that being transported down through the central and eastern inland with frequent inland troughs, as well as the occasional cold front. The overall trend in this most reliable of global models for extended weather analysis, supports the BOMs recent outlook for very wet October across most of Australia. So over the next week will have probably the last burst of cold air coming through southern Australia. Into early October we will start to see more troughs develop through inland Queensland the Northern Territory and Northwest W.A. The moisture that builds up along these troughs will seep south as we go through the next few weeks as the synoptic pattern changes. High pressure systems will start to drift further south in line with the seasonal shift. Once this occurs we will see easterly winds become the dominant feature across most of Australia, and that will lead to increasing humidity thanks to warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Coral and Tasman Seas. The slow movement of troughs, means more time for rainfall events to produce multiple days of meaningful rainfall. There is a defined shift in modelling for coastal Queensland and New South Wales to see the best of the rain coming in probably once we see the winds turn into the east during October. You can see that in the video quite clearly. For inland Queensland who are still waiting on reasonable rain, we will likely see rainfall chances increase once the winds turn easterly and feed the inland troughs to get the thunderstorm season firing. Again you can see that in the video towards the back half of October. The early onset of the northern wet season is underway, with Darwin recording it’s heaviest September rain in quite some time, 55mm of rain falling overnight and further rain expected in the week ahead. The average rainfall for September in Darwin is 12.5mm. I have high confidence in this forecast. It is the most reliable longer term model. It is also one of the most conservative models that we can access to assess future climate patterns. I have not seen signals for rainfall like this for the summer period in nearly a decade. But I will also add that you can get very excited by the colours - however it is a guide. As a forecaster I look at these charts and also cross check them with other data which I have, and I feel that this outlook is the most reasonable in the short-term. There are other models that have twice as much rainfall for the period and there are other models that have less. So this splits the difference and quite frankly, it’s pretty up there with rainfall signals. So I finish by saying this, make preparations for a more active severe weather season. Make preparations for the potential of flooding for inland communities, including being cut off from major city centres during the late spring and summer. If you live in a flood prone area, know your risks and have a plan ready to go. Just like bushfires you should always have a plan of what to do in the threat of flood events. It’s not preparing two days out before a severe weather event, the preparation starts now. It’s not a matter of if there will be flooding it’s when. So if you live in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia - stay up to date with each rain event from this point on.

03.01.2022 Day 5 down 3 to go

02.01.2022 Massive week done & dusted