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25.01.2022 Another Newspoll, another set of numbers. What is missing from all Newspoll surveys since the federal election is the same group of people who were missing from all quantitative polls before the election. Scott Morrison may describe them as the quiet Australians but we like to define them as disaffected Australians. At the last federal election they did not support Scott Morrison’s Coalition Government nor Bill Shorten’s Opposition. These quiet Australians opted for a minor p...arty. In most states they voted for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party or Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. In northern Tasmania some opted to support Jacqui Lambie in the Senate. In Victoria, some even opted to support the Victorian Socialist. These quiet Australians choose to not support the major parties for various reasons but in short, they support a minor party because they think the political establishment no longer represents their values or addresses their concerns. This act of sticking the middle finger up to the Canberra bubble extends to all forms of political engagement, including polling. The quiet Australians are least likely to participate in a poll or engage in any attempt to discuss politics. Buried in every published poll’s margin of error are these quiet Australians and their true voting intention is only ever revealed when the votes are counted on election night. Hence when public polls forecast a close election result, such forecasts can easily predict the wrong winner. At Redbridge, we don’t attempt to predict the unpredictable but rather gain insight as to why these quiet Australians are increasingly opting to disengage from politics. That insight cannot be gained by using traditional quantitative polling. So what does today’s Newspoll mean (Outside the remarkable lack of random movement in their fortnightly results)? Buried in these numbers is yet another nasty surprise for one of the major parties.

24.01.2022 Redbridge Director Simon Welsh has written an article in today’s Age on the growing challenges faced by residents living in our growing suburbs. You can find a link to the article in our comments section. In our growth suburbs, there are towns within towns the old towns and the new estates which encircle them. It was the new estates that delivered the result for Labor in 2018. People living in new estates had bought those houses with jobs that grew out of the state’s infr...astructure program, their kids attended brand-new schools, they still had a bit of money left over at the end of the month thanks to a manageable mortgage. From a Labor perspective, it seems, growth is good. Wherever new estates were expanding, generally speaking, the Labor vote was strongest. Indeed, the growth-is-good explanation could even be extended into Melbourne’s middle suburbs. Where development was occurring to increase housing density and deliver affordable housing solutions, Labor performed well. But drive away from the shiny new estates into the older areas in our growth suburbs and things start to change. The old towns that sit at the centre of these growth areas look remarkably like they did in the 1980s. The prevailing narrative for people living in these areas is one of neglect. Not four years of neglect, but decades. Meanwhile, people keep arriving in the estates and are felt to be in competition for local services and infrastructure. The roads are congested. Shopping centres that were new and vibrant in the 1980s are now worn out and half empty and the only good one is so busy it takes 30 minutes to find a park.

24.01.2022 How small town Australia is having a profound impact on this country's electoral landscape. https://kossamaras.blogspot.com//the-problem-with-small-to

23.01.2022 It has been well document that much of Australia’s traditional blue collar industries have endured decades of decline. Gone are the large shop floors like Ford and Holden. So what type of workplaces are replacing them? Small business. This is especially the case in Melbourne’s outer suburbs, where many residents are finding work typically in a business that employs less than 10 people. This transformation is not just having an impact on the employees career but on politics. ...At the most recent federal and state elections, an increasing number of outer suburban voters opted to support a minor party or independent. Redbridge is of the view that a significant driver of this psephology change is the relationship between the employee and the employer. During the second half of the 20th century that relationship was primarily between the employee, their union and a dominant industrial relations framework. Today that relationship is now an intimate one between the employee and their employer (the small business owner). It’s our view that this change has altered the way people respond to political messaging and government policy. The political impact can be seen in Melbourne’s outer west, where Labor has gradually lost ground to minor parties over several federal elections. We are confident that similar patterns have emerged in Sydney’s outer west where that transformation has been occurring at a much greater pace over the last 20 years. Image from Business Victoria

22.01.2022 Away from his day job, Redbridge's Director Simon Welsh volunteers as a director for the Albury Wodonga Food share program. In today's Border Mail edition, he explains how not just food relief but social housing is critical for thousands of regional Victorians who are doing it tough at the moment.

20.01.2022 In today’s Herald Sun. Our research has identified a sizeable number of Australians who are worried about COVID-19 vaccines. They express concern about side effects and the rapid timeline. That said, the vast majority of our respondents trust health experts to provide them with critical information about the upcoming vaccine program. Very insightful Herald Sun podcast that provides a lot more details on our poll. https://podcasts.apple.com//podca/the-splash/id1444390972

18.01.2022 From late March, Redbridge has been spending time with hundreds of voters across the country, conducting long form interviews in most states. We observed as Australians’ views about politics dramatically shifted to one of a ‘war time’ mentality. Old loyalties were put aside as everyone focused on the massive global health and economic crisis. We have supplemented this analysis with large scale quantitative research, measuring views on political leadership, lockdowns and the ...economy. Last weekend in New Zealand provides a window into what this world may look like. Leaders who have largely managed this crisis are being rewarded. The tribalism of politics has been replaced with a nationalist commitment to beating this virus. Here in Australia, both federal and state leaders are enjoying the same success. Some of this analysis was exclusively covered on Channel 9 last night. A clip to that coverage can be accessed in the comments section. Stay tuned for a more comprehensive breakdown on this data and a lot more.

17.01.2022 The latest Newspoll is has been released tonight. At Redbridge we only consider the primary vote samples worthy of any assessment. The major parties continue to show electoral decline, although movement within their respective primary vote is more than likely a result on sample fluctuations. The same can be said about the Greens primary vote (sample fluctuation) which always records a much higher reading than it ever receives at any given election. Again, this has more to do with the demographic makeup of people participating in polls. Especially online polls. The One Nation vote is at 4 percent. We would suggest the ‘other’ vote is much larger and definitely recording double digits.

16.01.2022 ACTU makes super push for women Union wants 15 per cent super guarantee to address gender gap in retirement savings. Many women in low income households endure a lifetime of gender pay inequity. This challenge is compounded by significant hurdles for many of these women who attempt to re-enter the workforce after having children. The ACTU’s 15 per cent superannuation guarantee will at the very least help millions of these women when they head into retirement. ... Women living in the outer suburbs of our large cities and in regional Australia pay very little attention to political news but this story will grab their attention.

13.01.2022 The Northern Territory by-election in the seat of Johnston has been won by Labor. However, the result is yet again another warning to the two major parties. Territory Alliance enjoyed a significant swing of 22.2% at the expense of both Labor and the CLP. Labor’s primary was cut down to 30%, losing over 21%, whilst the CLP equally had a bad day, losing just over 15% of its vote. Many political commentators have already stated that this result should not be used to assess the ...broader political landscape in the Northern Territory. To a certain extent this may be true, if the result did not look awfully similar to other recent results across the country. There is a strong political trend in Australia, one which suggests the rapid growth of conservative minor parties. Their growth costs both Labor and the broader Liberal National Party votes, depending on the region and state. In the outer suburbs of our large cities, this growth normally comes at Labor’s expense. In regional areas, it’s the National Party and Liberal Party paying the price. There are outliers, like in the regional federal seat of Hunter, where Labor’s loss was One Nation’s gain. The same can be said about some seats in Queensland and Tasmania. What’s driving this? Economics. Many Australians have experienced close to two decades of economic decline. Their personal financial stress is at times hidden by our national socio economic measures but any regional based assessment quickly reveals a worrying trend where some parts of this country’s economy have been in a recession like environment for a while. This graph illustrates this steady and now rapid change at a federal level.

12.01.2022 A very telling assessment of Melbourne’s property prices. The detailed typical household annual income of $88,700 is in many ways inflated by higher income earners who currently own a property or have already entered the housing market. Most outer suburban Melbourne residents fall into the bottom range, articulated in the enclosed graph. Many face the prospect of spending half their working lives saving enough money for a deposit. Hence why affordable infill options are critical. This will provide occupations like school teachers, nurses and chefs with geographic mobility, providing them with options to live closer to their place of employment.

11.01.2022 "But it will be a big chaos [if more people move here] because it will be inconvenient for everyone [to] live, kids can't go to school or university, to the city or to western suburbs We need new approaches/new forms of partnership between developers, investors and government to deliver managed growth in our outer suburbs that provides quality of life for those who live there https://www.abc.net.au//tarneit-suburb-on-melbour/11537562

11.01.2022 The suburbs set for population explosions Victoria's population expected to increase by more than 40 per cent over the next 20 years. This increase will largely be driven by a demand for affordable housing. For most first homebuyers, greenfield suburbs are the only option.

09.01.2022 Airbnb has been booming for a number of years now but it’s also creating a number of issues for local governments. Today’s Herald Sun briefly touches on some of these challenges. You can view every Airbnb listing in detail by clicking on the link. Remember to zoom in and out to view the listings in detail. https://public.tableau.com/profile/kos.samaras

09.01.2022 Pandemics have always triggered massive changes in society, politics and the way we live. This is a first in many insights we will provide on what COVID may be doing to the world around us.

08.01.2022 Between the 6th and 10th of April, we conducted a survey of voters in the Victorian State Electorate of Sunbury. In 2014, Victorian Labor secured 44 percent of the primary vote. The Sunbury electorate mainly covers the peri-urban suburb of Sunbury, and the metropolitan suburbs of Tullamarine, Gladstone Park, and Westmeadows.

08.01.2022 A CBD driver levy is bad policy. The best solution to address congestion is to support policies that encourage more businesses to locate in Melbourne's middle to outer suburbs. Decentralising the economy is a critical solution to this problem.

07.01.2022 Redbridge's Kos Samaras recently participated in an interview with ABC's Stephanie Dalzell, on the rise of CALD (Culturally and linguistic diverse) voters supporting One Nation. Redbridge's own analysis indicates that the change in voter behaviour should not be defined as a product of race or intolerance. A significant driver behind this startling evolution is a sense of loss in community and social status.

04.01.2022 There is a class divide forming within parent groups. The more economically stressed or Covid 19 exposed the parent, the less likely they support the idea of their children heading back to school. They entrust that decision to Dan Andrews and his Chief Health Officer.

02.01.2022 Our latest research on Australian state’s closing their borders, hotel quarantine and how Australians should be treated when returning from overseas.

01.01.2022 GetUp targeted six seats during the recent federal election. They only succeeded in one seat, helping to unseat Tony Abbott. That seat contains the largest number of voters who would mirror most of GetUp’s activists base demographics. One other seat, the seat of Menzies, showed signs of movement but that too contains a similar demographic map. http://www.theage.com.au//dutton-gives-getup-the-lowdown-i