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RZForex

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25.01.2022 Risk continued its upward trajectory ignoring real news of continuing spiralling virus cases and threats of further lockdowns to focus on the speculative news that a vaccine is ever closer. Following up from Modernas positive update we had further comments from the Oxford University surrounding positive findings in their quest allowing markets to dismiss the negative news. All US indices finished up on the day albeit off their highs with the Russell the star performer up... shy of 4% despite further Fed warnings on the economy and a beige book print showing a marked slowdown citing workers hesitancy to come back to work through health and safety concerns. Gold remained rangebound 1800/1815 and Oil moved back on to a $41 handle. The BoC rate decision came and went with no surprises giving the CAD a boost and the best performer on the day. The DXY slipped back as the USD weakened once again with EUR reaching a high of 1.1450 before dropping back and AUD making a break through recent topside resistance around 0.7000 to a high of 0.7038 settling at 0.7010 into the close. UK CPI came in a little higher than expected as the pound squeezed to 1.2650 before falling back under 1.2600. Asias calendar today sees Australian employment data and a look at Chinese retail sales and industrial production. Once again any volatility in the AUD is likely to be short lived and follow whatever the S&P500 is doing. In the UK we get more data by way of the current job situation before US weekly jobless claims again during the US session. See more

22.01.2022 The S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes continued their trajectory higher buoyed by tech stocks with the former now up 54% from the coronavirus dip mid-March, and the Dow having a another down day as financials struggle in this low rate environment. The USD was on the back foot once again for most of the day in Asia and Europe but we saw a correction in the US session. EUR had climbed to 1.1965, AUD broke recent resistance to climb to 0.7264 and Gold had squeezed to 2016 from 1983 in A...sia before a wash out in precious metals saw Gold dump $30 back to 1980 and bringing a surge in the USD back to life with all G10 following suit. Gold regained its momentum and closed back at 2002, likewise AUD moved back higher, however EUR remained under some pressure. The outlier was Cable which remained supported the whole day without any real catalyst and still uncertainty over Brexit talks looming in the background. The pound closed up 130 pips on the day. On the political front we heard Trump state that he postponed the talks last weekend with China and has no plan to reschedule at this time. Markets are ignoring all trade talk rhetoric and purely focusing on the free money pouring into risk assets. RBA minutes came and went yesterday without fanfare and little reaction for the currency. AUD remained well supported against the USD and most trading pairs with AUD/JPY now looking bullish for the first time in three months. Which probably means we are near the peak! Inflation data releases from UK, Europe and Canada dominates before we get a look at the FOMC minutes. See more

22.01.2022 Two things dominated markets over the past 24 hours and that was volatility within precious metals, mainly Silver and the long awaited announcement of Teslas earnings. Silver gained almost 8% on the day now over 20% in the last week within wild up and down swings alongside Gold reaching above 1875 as the USD continued to weaken across the board. For Tesla calls for entry to the S&P500 will grow louder as the company reported another quarter of profits, however the breakdown ...revealed regulatory credits as the key stimulant. Risk saw a dip on the European open as the US announced it had instructed the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston and China responded by saying it may force the US to close its embassy in Wuhan. The dip was bought and everything retraced back albeit the CNH. Nothing can dent the free money the Fed have given the markets. Further news out overnight that the Chinese embassy in San Francisco is harbouring an FBI wanted researcher has again failed to stir markets. Today in Asia we will hear from the Australian Treasurer delivering his budget update which is unlikely to cause too much excitement as markets are aware of a dulled down extension of the Jobseeker/Jobkeeper allowances to keep the economy ticking over. The US weekly jobless claims number will be the highlight for the US session. See more

21.01.2022 Well the key risk event came and went with Powell confirming the Fed approach to average inflation targeting but little in the way of any detail to how thats measured. USD bears got the headlines they wanted and the greenback sunk on the initial comment but soon retraced aggressively with some profit taking on the buy the rumour sell the fact. However, by the end of the day, month end USD selling for rebalancing saw most pairs fall back to not far where they were pre-Powell.... The big exception was USD/JPY which benefitted from the rise in US 10 year yields greater than other pairs. Prior to Powell we saw a weaker jobless claims print but better GDP data which saw little price action. Stocks were mixed, having jumped initially the Dow Jones gave back some of its gains, the S&P500 closed at a new record high but the Nasdaq underperformed having been the better performer in recent days. Gold having moved from 1930 to 1977 on Powells confirmation then sank back to 1910 before closing back at 1930 proving metals to once again be by far the most volatile risk asset of the day. The commodity bloc currencies all surged but also fell back from their highs mirroring the metals price action but in a more moderate way. AUD stopped just short of 0.7300, USD/CAD couldnt break 1.31 and the NZD peaked at 0.6675. From here we wait to see if this proves to give the USD some resurgence or if the recent weak momentum will continue, so we stand at a crossroads for DXY from here with key support around 92.00/20 still the key for a bigger move lower. Jackson Hole continues with other central bankers talking, BOEs Bailey the highlight tonight but unlikely to cause too much of a stir to the end of the week. Markets need to be cautious of Japanese PM Abes presser today during the Asian session where theres some speculation that he may step down due to his current health problems. Canadian GDP the highlight of a quiet economic calendar. See more

20.01.2022 Despite some strength in the USD for most of the day the post weekly jobless claims retracement kicked in and we saw USD weakness continue throughout the US session. A print of 1.1 million weekly claims more than the 920k expected caused an about turn in the momentum seen throughout the day despite continuing claims print being better than expected at 14.84m. Stocks had been under pressure ahead of the release as markets continued to digest FOMC minutes, however a tech rally ...spurred the Nasdaq to close at another new record high with Tesla breaking 2000 for the first time and Apple higher once again. Tesla is now over 1000 x earnings in value! The S&P500 incredibly had 70% of stocks in the red but the tech stocks allowed it to finish up 10 points on the day. Lower US yields was the catalyst for a turn in metals. After pushing above 1950 during the Asian session, Gold moved lower throughout the day testing 1925 ahead of the weekly claims before squeezing back through the highs of the day to 1955 as the USD weakness spread. Silver also followed closing up 2.5% on the day. Cable put in an impressive rally spurred by the London fixing rising from 1.3080 to clear 1.32 into the close however, the EUR lagged in comparison but has now pushed back through 1.1850. The risk rally was buoyed by positive news surrounding the virus cases and a gradual slowing in the southern states where the rise had been prolific recently but the claims data showed theres still some way to go for the economy yet. A quiet day ahead for the Asian session is expected where we will see some preliminary data from the ABS around Australian retail sales with UK retail sales and European PMIs later. The week is rounded off in the US session by Canadian retail sales and US PMI but it will all be about consolidation or further growth in the tech sector. See more

19.01.2022 Risk had another strong session on the back of a rally in Chinese stocks posting returns not seen since 2015 giving the Asian session a boost which in turn followed through into Europe and the US session. Better than expected US ISM non-manufacturing data also added to the risk optimism. Markets are discounting virus increased numbers globally as the current death rate remains low in comparison to earlier in the year. The turn could come if that starts to creep up. Nasdaq pos...ted a new all-time high along with all the household tech names. S&P500 up 1.6% and the Dow posted 1.78% whilst Gold also crept back towards recent highs at 1787 just $2 shy of the recent high with analysts pointing to a breach of $1800 sooner rather than later. In FX the EUR benefitted the most pushing back above 1.13, Cable found itself above 1.2500 albeit briefly and AUD fell just short of the 0.70c level ahead of todays RBA meeting. No rate change but focus will be on any change to commentary surrounding the currency. With a re-emergence of virus cases there may be a case to mention the impact it will have on the economy. However, no comment is likely to see a surge through 0.7000 with the focus then on recent highs at 0.7060. See more

19.01.2022 Risk bounced back once again during the US session despite the Nasdaq heading lower for most of the day before closing up almost 1% whilst the Dow gained over 500 points to close over 2%. All this before the close and the after-hours announcement from Moderna that further trial results have been positive in the fight for a vaccine. Risk jumped again with AUD reaching the top of the recent range at 0.6994 and US indices futures up almost 1% across the board. Stocks only go up,... remember? This despite new records across a number of states with Texas and LA County in California the headliners and comments from Fed officials that there are signs the economy is starting to slow down once again. Trump has signed a sanctions bill against China for its recent legal changes to law in Hong Kong and claims he is not interested in discussing another trade deal, all ignored by markets. It now looks as thought Trumps re-election campaign will be around convincing his disciples that China is to blame for everything as he once again cited Chinas accountability for hiding the virus. A strong performance from EUR saw a climb above 1.1400 for the first time in six weeks with resistance ahead around 1.1425/30 on the back of a weaker USD across the board. Gold dipped to 1790 but has bounced back to 1810 and Oil settled back above $40 after yesterdays wobble. News in Australia of Victorias possibility of stage 4 restrictions and further restrictions in place in and around Sydney have prompted the NZ PM to dismiss the chances of travel between the countries for now, however neither currency has been affected by domestic downturns and remain driven by US stocks. No data to excite during the upcoming session as we await inflation data from the UK, US Industrial Production and BoC rate decision expecting no change. See more

18.01.2022 A mixed session for risk that saw the Nasdaq lose over 2% with Tesla off 5% on the day after the earnings release showed most of their profits were due to regulatory credits. Also news that an antitrust panel is to explore the big tech firms Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google weighed on the indices with S&P500 and Dow closing in the red also. Gold bobbed between 1775/1790 before a push towards 1800 saw the precious metal capped at 1798 as Silver took a back seat from the rec...ent volatility as US jobless claims still showed an elevated count despite many parts of the country opening up. In FX the USD made back some gains with AUD slipping back almost 100 pips from its previous days highs. The Australian budget came with no startling news other than the size of the deficit but given the current situation markets took it in its stride. EUR had an up and down day swinging 25 pips either side of 1.1600 and Cable regained some ground after positive comments from EUs Barnier regarding the Brexit deal negotiations. With the risk off sentiment we saw the JPY move back to 106.70 and AUD/JPY was down 1.5% on the day. Mike Pompeo continued his aggressive rhetoric towards China who in turn responded by saying in a piece in the Global Times that they could expel hundreds of US diplomats (CIA spies). No data in Asia today as we await PMI data from UK and Europe and UK retail sales before US PMI data tonight. See more

18.01.2022 The current swings continue with markets at a crossroads as I highlighted earlier this week. After a somewhat positive risk on session for Asia and early Europe we saw futures point to gains on Wall St., however the day saw a roller coaster ride of up and down swings but ended in another bloodbath with Nasdaq down 2%, S&P500 down 1.75% and the DJ off 1.45% on the day. The USD gained overall after a similar roller coaster ride. Cable the headline massacre with the EU/UK at log...gerheads over the current Brexit deal and the UKs intention to break part of the agreement saw the pair from 1.3035 to 1.2275 marking its biggest one day fall for 6 months. The ECBs Lagarde gave EUR bulls something to get their teeth into during her post rate decision presser by dismissing the EUR/USD exchange rate triggering a rally to highs just short of 1.1920 before falling over a big figure as the greenback rallied. Commodity currencies were the first to turn after an initial spike on the worse print from the jobless claims as USD/CAD fell to 1.3120 and AUD retest key resistance at 0.7325, however as risk assets turned back lower aggressively they closed lower on the day vs the USD. Gold having jumped as high as 1966 on the jobless data fell back to close almost unchanged at $1945 and WTI slipped once again to $37. Expect further pressure on Asian indices today especially the ASX which has shown further signs of weakness in the last week having been capped ahead of 6200 at the beginning of the month. Asia has no data of note but we will see UK trade and industrial production data but the main focus will be on the political standoff. Tonights US CPI print should keep markets contained until the release when we could see some more fireworks for the end of the week. See more

16.01.2022 The USD remained under pressure into the US open which saw EUR/USD squeeze above 1.20 for the first time since May 2018 reaching a high of 1.2010. It was a brief dalliance which saw sellers push back through key support around 1.1960 to close off 100 pips on the day. ECBs Lane comments that the ECB doesnt target FX rates, but EUR/USD matters along with a CPI print of -0.2% from 0.2% expected was the double whammy to assist the sell off. From a USD positive point of view a... beat on US ISM print gave the dollar a lift and aided the EUR demise. The DXY had sunk to a 2 year low of 91.70 but has now moved back above last weeks support at 92.00/20. Are we on the verge of a correction? Time will tell but US yields remained under pressure whilst US stocks rallied once again. No surprise its the tech sector once again that continues to keep these indices buoyant with yet again record closes for the S&P500 and Nasdaq and the Dow Jones up 0.76%. With US stocks strong the commodity bloc currencies remained well supported vs the likes of EUR and GBP. The latter having tried to reach 1.35 but capped at 1.3481 before following EUR/USD trajectory back to 1.3380. The lack of USD selling for month end also allowed the greenback to steady. Gold jumped to 1992 but failed to hold onto its gains and we saw a slump back to 1963. Yesterday the RBA came and went but with little market impact. Reference to the AUD being the highest in two years wasnt exactly breaking news however the pair fell back from a high of 0.7414 to 0.7360 during the US session. Todays GDP data will be the biggest mover for the AUD this week from a domestic front although recent price action has been more volatile around external influences. The Q2 number is expected to be weak around -6% so it will take a much worse number to push the AUD lower where buyers are likely to lurk. Tonight we get the ADP jobs report from the US and will hear from Feds Williams and Mester and the BOEs Haldane and Broadbent so there could be some GBP volatility depending on what comments are made about rates. See more

16.01.2022 It seems one day up next day down for the USD as we head into the key event risk for the week. Powell is due to deliver his address at 1310GMT so expect high levels of volatility around that time. The dollar was mostly lower against its key pairs despite US yields ticking higher throughout the day. The likely influence here is month end rebalancing against the USD, however EUR struggled to keep up with the commodity bloc currencies and Cable as further concerns around Covid c...ases left investors cautious. Italy has reported the highest number of new cases for almost 3 months. Metals once again were volatile with Gold falling to 1902 before bouncing to 1954 into the close, Silver was also up 3.39% on the day. NZD, CAD, AUD and Cable are all up against the USD testing key trendlines and if it continue would send further bullish signals to markets. All eyes on Powell now. The key for the next moves in markets is the wording around average inflation targeting which if suggested could be a further boost for stocks and a weaker USD as it suggests the Fed are unlikely to raise rates anytime soon even if there were some signs of inflation exceeding 2%. Hurricane Laura has been stealing headlines with its velocity and potential damage so parts of the southern US are in their own lockdown and oil refineries remain closed. The better risk mood has seen the US indices continue to defy gravity with the Nasdaq putting in another 1.73% overnight an absolutely staggering bubble, but will it burst? Probably not yet! No data to excite the Asian session ahead eyes will be on US jobless claims data, expecting another 1m gain but the focus will be on Powell and if he is dovish enough. See more

15.01.2022 The stock market rout that started last week having paused over the US holiday re-emerged yesterday with all three major US indices hit hard. The Dow Jones and S&P500 well over 2% down but as to be expected the Nasdaq took the biggest hit down 4.11% and now considered to be in correction territory. Tesla lost over 21% on the day. The USD benefitted as markets focussed back on China/US, China/Australia tensions, Brexit and further new Covid cases across Europe and the US. Oi...l fell back to close below $37 as demand is showing signs of waning adding to the strain on the loonie with USD/CAD back at 1.3250 from 1.30 last week. AUD tried a quick spike on the European open from 0.7280 to 0.7310 but was met with a wave of selling that has seen it test 0.7192 so far. Cable was the worst performer as once again the UK government seem intent in completely destroying the economy by reneging on the Brexit deal signed in December. After a number of gaffes relating to Covid earlier in the year, news out recently that there are plans to introduce a night curfew and limit gatherings to a maximum of 6 people are likely to weigh on any economic growth and the path for GBP going forward is bleak. News that the Oxford/AstraZeneca trials are to be put on hold has also given risk assets a kick. Gold plunged from 1940 to 1906 with USD strength but became a risk holding asset and turned back north to retest 1940 before closing at 1929 down $4 on the day. Chinese CPI is due out today unlikely to stir markets with all eyes on Asia reaction to the overnight sell off in the US. Tonight the BoC will announce their rate decision with expectation that they will leave things as they are as recent data has been promising. See more

15.01.2022 After opening weaker in the Asian session Friday the USD regained some ground throughout the course of the day up 0.5% across the majors. Weak PMIs in Europe and better in the US aided the decline in EUR/USD which fell from 1.1880 to 1.1755 before closing around 1.1800. Likewise the AUD had pushed to 0.7216 earlier in the day falling back to close around 0.7160. Cable also fell despite a beat on PMI data but undermined by Brexit EU/UK talks hitting yet another snag in the lo...ng battle towards its conclusion. After touching 1.3255 the pair fell back to close around 1.3100. Gold closed down slightly on the day but not before spiking to 1950 then falling to 1912 and rebounding straight back to 1940. Silver once again had a similar trajectory. All US indices closed up on the day with yet another record for the tech sector with S&P500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs but the Dow outperforming both on the day percentage wise. US politics kicks off this week with the Republic convention so watch for any speculative headlines to cause volatility as Trump is expected to make new promises if re-elected. News over the weekend of Trump potentially authorising an emergency take up of a UK based vaccine overruling the USFDA restrictions smacks of a short term pre-election fillip so expect more of the same over the coming 2.5 months. We could see the oil price affected this week as both Gulf storms Laura and Marco are due to hit this week and will cause the shut down of some refineries in the US. No data to cause excitement to start the week so expect a subdued session. The economic highlight of the week will be Jay Powells address at Jackson Hole on Thursday where markets will want some guidance on what to expect for the September FOMC. See more

15.01.2022 US consumer confidence fell to a 6 year low and stock markets rallied. Makes perfect sense! Once again the Nasdaq and S&P500 close at record highs while the Dow Jones slipped just slightly into the red for the day as vaccine talk continued to dominate risk assets. The USD slipped back from Mondays gains with upbeat reading from the German IFO pushing EUR/USD back to 1.1840. CAD, AUD and NZD were once again supported and moved back higher vs the greenback alongside the better ...risk on mood. Metals muddied the water with Gold falling back to recent support at 1910/15 once again which had a knock on effect into the crypto market pushing BTC back down to 11,250 off its recent highs above 12K. Earlier in the Asian session we had heard positive comments from both China and the US alleviating some of the recent tension between the two countries but we wont see the details until after the US election and well into Q1 2021. However, the positivity was set the tone for the better risk trading environment. Overall markets remained cautious ahead of Feds Powell address at Jackson Hole tomorrow where we are likely to start seeing bigger price action moves as markets position themselves for the September FOMC. Rumours are doing the rounds that UK PM Johnson may be looking to resign within the next 6 months due to his own lingering coronavirus health issues, however I doubt theres any truth to this story. GBP remains unchanged and had a good day across the board. On the data front the highlight will be US durable goods. Expect a holding pattern until we hear from Powell. See more

14.01.2022 Markets went into recovery mode after Tuesdays sell off with US stocks finding their feet and putting in some impressive gains despite a late sell off into the close. Nasdaq made back 2.71% from the more than 4% loss the previous day. Oil regained $38, the commodity bloc currencies were back in vogue once again and Gold closed up $16 on the day. For the DXY we have managed to hold steady above 93.00 and indicates that we could be at a crossroads with regard to strength for th...e greenback moving forward and how risk assets perform. Was overnight a corrective bounce before a larger down move or was the recent sell off the buy the dip opportunity? For Cable there appears to be nervousness and uncertainty due to the UK governments stance towards the Brexit agreement with emergency talks due to take place later today between the EU and UK. The pound fell from above 1.30 to hit 1.2885 before managing to retrace and EUR also managed to push back above 1.1800 with EUR/GBP finding offers around 0.9130 a six week high. BoC left things unchanged that saw the CAD strengthen after the announcement with the risk being that they were more dovish however the loonie underperformed vs the other commodity bloc currencies despite the stronger Oil price. No data to excite for the upcoming Asia session with eyes on the ECB and Brexit talks before the weekly US jobless claims number so its likely that volatility levels will increase as the days progresses. Markets will be looking to Lagarde for any comments surrounding the exchange rate. See more

14.01.2022 The climax to the week came and went without too much volatility with markets closing largely around where they were pre USD data dump but with a slightly stronger USD across the board. Euro, JPY and GBP weaker with the commodity currencies to a lesser extent as risk remained supported and the major US indices closed in the black and Gold settling at 1775. Risk jumped on the data release which showed an better headline number on the NFP release +4.8 million from 3 million ex...pected alongside the weekly jobless claims. However the devil is in the detail and a look at the breakdown showed that whilst the total number of unemployed workers sits at 17.75 million, in fact 19.29 million were claiming benefits. Work that one out! The rally petered out with the release of further virus cases across the US and markets focused on the long weekend ahead as trading desks took half days where possible. Todays economic data centres around Services PMI releases across China, Europe and the UK. Expect markets to be slow with no direction unless we get a tape bomb response from China surrounding the current political and trade stand offs. See more

13.01.2022 Markets continue to be dominated by the rush for precious metals with silver gaining another 7% and Gold jumping $50 on the day. The USD continues to weaken as portfolios readjust in this post pandemic funded world. The EUR fell just short of 1.1800 and Cable popped its head above 1.2900 for the first time since March, likewise the commodity bloc currencies made further gains. However, the biggest performer on the day was Bitcoin up 15% as crypto enthusiasts worried about FO...MO seeing it pop back thru $10,000 bought in blind panic. The Nasdaq was the best performer amongst the US indices after a subdued week last week we saw a gain of 1.67% into the close with S&P500 and Dow trailing behind but with green shoots. The GOP announced their latest stimulus package which should be seen as disappointing given the unemployment benefit check has been cut from $600 to $200 which will impact on spending considerably. With the Fed decision and Powells statement after the decision likely to reinforce further stimulus for the economy we could expect to see further USD weakness for now, however it has been a one way move in recent weeks. No data of note in Asia today as we await Australian inflation data tomorrow. Expect Asia to tread water for todays session. See more

13.01.2022 Asia reacted to Fridays nervous close and the headlines over the weekend by plunging into risk off mode from the open. US indices futures as well as high beta currencies slumped initially with AUD pushing support at 0.6800/10 before a mid-morning squeeze in Asia saw risk return to flat on the day. During the following US session, markets shrugged off any concerns surrounding a jump in virus cases pushing for all US indices to close firmly in the green and Nasdaq closing at a...n all-time record high of 10056. FX followed suit and AUD rebounded to push through 100 and 200DMA resistance to revisit recent highs at 0.6920/25. A slight pullback into the close saw it settle at 0.6905 as the correlation with S&P500 continues. After basing at 1.1165 EUR managed a rebound back to 1.1270 and Cable was reluctantly dragged with it kicking and screaming falling just short of 1.2500 after falling as low as 1.2360 earlier in the day. Ongoing Brexit talks still a factor in the rear view mirror. Comments continue to flow from the White House surrounding yet another stimulus package around the 1 trillion USD mark also helped buoy the risk trade allowing Gold to hold on to yesterdays gains and settle at 1756 after reaching an intraday high of 1763 its highest level since 2012. No data releases of interest during the upcoming Asian session with a cluster of June PMI data to be released throughout the European and US session ahead. See more

11.01.2022 The week petered with US indices around flat on the day. Nasdaq and S&P500 both slightly in the red with a couple of green shoots on the Dow as retail sales data showed a beat to expectations. US yields were mixed with up to 10 years down on the day but the 30 year yield up 1.8BPs. This led to a mixed bag in FX and the US dollar but just slightly lower on the DXY. Within the commodity bloc the CAD moved lower against the USD and AUD and NZD were largely unchanged. On Friday R...BAs Lowe hinted at wanting to see a lower AUD but stopped short of suggesting any likelihood of intervention, noting that it would be pointless. After an intraday dip to 0.7135 the pair slowly moved back higher over the day. We did see a resurgence in GBP and EUR but overall no big levels broken or momentum to get excited about. Silver fell almost 4% on the day dragging its big brother with it. Gold failed to close above 1960/65 resistance area once again and until we see that it looks like we could trade in a range with support now at 1920. A lack of economic data this week will likely focus on any political developments with the Democrats hosting their convention this week with Biden addressing the party and the country on Friday. Meanwhile, the delay in the US stimulus package continues which looks like being early September before we can see any real breakthrough. RBA minutes tomorrow and the FOMC minutes Thursday are the highlights this week alongside numerous Australian companies reporting. News out this morning that NZ have delayed their election by a month due to the resurgence of virus cases had minimal impact on the currency. See more

11.01.2022 After a risk off opening dip in Asia global stock markets shrugged off fears of the spike in corona virus cases. All Asian indices closed in the red but European and US bourses closed up on the day so in Asia today we should see an unwind of yesterdays losses. In FX the USD remained King for the day but likely that those flows have been month end rebalancing more than anything else. The commodity bloc currencies closed largely unchanged on the day but Cable and Euro fell bac...k some with the USD strength. After testing the key support area of 2990/3000 the S&P500 bounced hard as US housing data showed a marked improvement from expectation. US coronavirus data was mixed but usually is at the start of the week as testing data is delayed from the weekend giving risk a better outlook to start the week. Gilead announced that the cost of Remdesivir is likely to be between $2340 and $3120 in the US giving the Pharma sector a lift whilst the tech sector suffered from nervousness around Facebook losing advertisers over the decision to allow misinformative posts on its platform. In the upcoming session we will get a look at Chinese NBS PMI data along with RBAs DeBelle speech which is unlikely to stray from recent RBA rhetoric and could give AUD another lift higher. See more

10.01.2022 An odd trading day that saw a breakdown in recent correlation between assets with a disappointing ADP report the backdrop. The USD continued to strengthen with DXY pushing back up to 92.85 gaining ground against AUD, EUR and GBP once again in a similar pattern to the previous trading day. However the NZD and CAD remained well supported a surprise for the latter with the Oil price closing down 2.7%. Gold slipped further after trying to rally back through 1970/75 the pair faile...d and dropped back to 1932 down 1.4% into the close with Silver faring worse at 2.4% down and BTC once again capped around 12000 falling back to 11300. The Australian GDP print of -7% was the biggest fall in almost 30 years and weighed on the AUD pushing back to 0.7300 during the US session but has bounced well with a stronger US stock market into the close. The EUR also remained under pressure and fell back further to 1.1822 having touch 1.20 the previous day, likewise Cable followed a similar move lower. US stocks continued the usual grind higher with once again new all time highs for S&P and Nasdaq but a stellar 450 pip gain on the Dow allowed it to record its best day in a week. Tesla slumped 10% at one point but made back 4% of that during the course of the day giving the Nasdaq a roller coaster ride. As mentioned prior the August ADP report came in at 428K new jobs less than half of the expected 1 million expected, however a revision up to Julys number by 50K was a positive. Overall the data was ignored as market consensus is that the ADP and NFP reports are apart from each other when predicting the current jobs market. Fridays NFP print is expected to show 1.35 million job gains for August. On a political front the US Centers for Disease Control has asked states to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine by November 1. Just in time for the election. Perfect timing one would suggest. Nevertheless the headlines were another reason for the stock market rally. In Asia today we see Australian Trade Data followed by Chinese Caixin PMI. The European session will show further PMI data from UK and Europe ahead of US weekly jobless claims data and ISM Services PMI. See more

10.01.2022 The better than expected NFP print of 1.371m vs 1.35m expected and an improvement in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 8.4% stole the headlines but made way for a mixed trading session ahead. All three US indices remained under pressure with the Nasdaq adding another 1.27% loss on the day which looks good as at one point it was down 5% and the S&P500 down 3% as markets digested comments from Powell about the economy that reinforced that the Fed are on hold for now and marke...ts shouldnt expect anything at the September meeting. A decent bounce back made the final prints look less frightening. The greenback also had a mixed session gaining on the initial NFP print but then giving back later into the day. The strongest currency on the day was the CAD which is surprising given the slump in Oil prices and the rise in US 10 year yields. Overall AUD, EUR and GBP finished the day virtually unchanged. The weekends press has been focusing on Brexit talks again with the UK giving the EU an Oct 15 deadline to finalise the separation from Jan 1 2021. Weve heard these threats many times before over the past 4 years. Cable has dipped on the open in Asia this morning and may see some further pressure when the European session opens later depending on how markets interpret these comments. Also for Australia, Victoria remains in lockdown with a further slow 6 week unwind ahead likely to impact the Australian economy further but no response in the currency so far. Recent price moves have been more dictated by external influence rather than domestic. Coronavirus cases across Europe are creeping up for a second wave with the UK announcing almost 3000 new cases yesterday. A public holiday in US and Canada today will give markets a break from the recent volatility in the stock markets so we should be in for a relatively quiet day. For the upcoming Asian session we see Chinese trade data as the highlight. See more

10.01.2022 Plenty of noise in the background for markets surrounding Chinas new security laws in HK and the US response. FOMC minutes. Lockdowns across several US states. PMI data. ADP job data reseasonalized. But the main driver once again has been a report around Pfizer vaccine testing done and some early positive results. After a wobble during the European session the report hit the wires and risk flew higher. The Nasdaq closed at new all-time highs suggesting Facebooks advertisi...ng issues are not important and the S&P500 closed slightly up. The laggard was the Dow that closed down 0.3% so hardly a number to be concerned about. Gold jumped to 1789 before falling back $30 and regaining 1770 into the close, whilst in FX the USD slipped back again with GBP the best performer although why is anybodys guess. CAD despite the better risk appetite was the underperformer on its Canada Day public holiday. Today we move to focus on Australia Trade data before a dump of data in the US tonight which will include the weekly jobless claims along with Junes NFP data, released a day earlier due to the upcoming US Independence Day public holiday. Expect some extreme volatility around those releases as markets pick through the good and the bad. See more

10.01.2022 Early optimism in markets on Friday were unwound during the US session with the Nasdaq the best performer at flat with Dow and S&P500 slipping into a negative close. DJ futures had spiked as high as 26450 during the European session but he index closed down at 25870 after virus fears crept back in weighing heavy on risk. Likewise similar price action in the S&P500 has seen us 100 pips lower than Fridays highs on the Asian open with USD and JPY both firmer across the board. S...cenes over the weekend of Trumps rally with a crowd full of supporters not practising social distancing or wearing masks have caused alarm across social media. How this will affect the campaign moving forward we have to wait and see. Virus cases are starting to jump globally with Germany, one of the most successful countries to combat the virus seeing large spikes amid talk of a second wave. Risk feels a bit nervy and this could be a defining week as to how insulated stock markets really are. AUD found support again at 0.6835 but with momentum had a strong rally to 0.6912 during the European session only to fall back with other risk assets. The pair has dipped to 0.6810 this morning and looks likely to try lower given current sentiment. UK retail sales numbers released showed a better than expected print but Covid/Brexit/USD strength all weighed heavy and the pair slipped back to 1.2350. Today PBoC will announce their rate decision with consensus that they are unlikely to change before that we may get some comments from RBAs Lowe as he is currently addressing a live panel. See more

10.01.2022 An eventful day for markets with some key swings starting in Asia. Risk got off on a firmer footing to start the session buoyed by the news of a further stimulus package from the White House before Peter Navarro dropped a live interview tape bomb saying the US/China trade deal was over. This saw risk drop dramatically with US indices futures off 1.5-2% within minutes and high beta currencies on the backfoot. However within the hour he had wound back his comments alongside Kud...low saying that this wasnt in fact true. Markets rewound the selloff aggressively pushing back higher and remaining supported throughout the European and US sessions. Later in the US session some nervousness crept in as the virus data showed a marked increase in hospitalisation cases, however all three indices closed up on the day with the Nasdaq the star performer once again. In FX the USD suffered the most with JPY gaining due to some aggressive USD/JPY selling with speculators pointing to a large M&A deal behind the move, however after the virus data we saw a slight USD retrace with AUD having made a one week high touching 0.6974 falling back to intraday support at 0.6930. EUR/USD also climbed higher above 1.1300 and Cable regained 1.2500 as PMI data came in better than expected. New highs since 2012 saw Gold soar to 1770 holding onto its gains into the close despite the slightly stronger USD in other areas. Todays highlight in Asia will be the RBNZ rate announcement expected to remain on hold, however we need to watch for the accompanying statement as to where they see the economy going from here. See more

08.01.2022 A fairly quiet close to the end of last week after a volatile few days saw Nasdaq continue to remain under pressure closing just in the red whilst the Dow and to a lesser extent the S&P500 remained in positive territory for the day. During Fridays session we saw US CPI come in a little higher than expected at 1.3% from 1.2% expected but US yields didnt budge and markets closed out with a whimper. Despite the volatility across risk assets last week a key note to the price act...ion of AUD/JPY shows treading water hinting that not much has changed overall despite some corrective moves in tech stocks. Gold closed at $1941 approx $10 higher than where it closed at the end of last week along with most G10 not too much changed on the week with the exception of Cable that lost more than 2.5% due to ongoing Brexit tensions. Over the weekend weve had some nods to EUR strength from ECBs Lagarde but most pairs are unchanged on the Asian open this morning. The main event this week will be the FOMC with recent comments suggesting no further stimulus for now. However, markets are still waiting to hear from the Fed how their new approach to inflation will be managed and this could cause some volatility. Having continually failed to meet inflation targets for 25 years they have a lot to answer for if they are to drive inflation towards 2%. Thursday could be the key turning point for the next move in the USD. No data of note for the upcoming session but Japan will have the LDP party election to replace Abe with Yoshihide Suga the expected new PM unlikely to cause any ripples. Expect a slow start to the week with eyes on UK/EU stand off and any political news from the US as we head towards the election. See more

08.01.2022 Risk had another strong day during the US session with all indices closing up on the day and breaking numerous monthly and quarterly records going back over 30 years fuelling the theory that there really is no longer a need for a stock analyst. Likewise Gold reached an 8 year high at 1781 and Oil closed up a whopping 92% for the quarter from Q1 2020. In FX the USD surrendered some recent gains with the commodity bloc currencies surging once again. AUD has regained 0.6900 afte...r dipping to 0.6832 yesterday after the state of Victoria announced extreme lockdown measures across some suburbs. Again the AUD has followed the S&P500 and ignored domestic issues the same way as it has for Q2. The CAD was also buoyed by the stronger Oil price. Overall the US virus cases data was mixed once again and the White House advisor Dr Fauci took to the wires to voice his concerns and failures of the current administration in the fight against the virus, highlighting his expectations that there could well be 100,000 cases per day soon. Markets ignored that and focussed on the free money that will inevitably come from further stimulus. Asias highlight today will be the Caixin China PMI expected to be an improvement in line with yesterdays NBS release. Later we will see European and US PMI data along with the monthly ADP jobs report from the US and to top it off the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC. See more

07.01.2022 Risk continued to close out the week on a weaker note with all US indices in the red into the close and have opened lower again this morning in Asia with the Nasdaq looking most vulnerable. Recent commentary has likened the current tech bubble to the dotcom bubble of 2000 where we saw huge losses in the tech sector as retail investors dominated and then lost big in the fallout. The USD has remained weaker against the EUR, GBP and JPY but has gained some ground against the com...modity bloc currencies with AUD bouncing off an intraday low of 0.7063 but unable to regain 0.7130 which is required for any retest of last weeks highs. Gold continues to grind higher towards the all-time high at 1921 as it fulfills its place as a risk asset. It feels just a matter of time before that level is tested so will be interesting to see how the price action is around that level and if it can push towards the big $2000 mark. Trade tensions continue to dominate investors fears with coronavirus still a distant second despite further case rises across Europe and the US towards the end of last week and over the weekend. The UK has placed Spain on a quarantine list and is expected to add France and Germany in the coming days as a second wave sets in. The RBAs Kent is due to speak this morning but another than a quiet calendar in Asia today. See more

05.01.2022 The USD suffered again as risk assets surged higher with Nasdaq, Metals and Bitcoin breaking out of recent highs as US yields moved back lower. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high helped by Tesla once again squeezing higher whilst the Dow Jones closed slightly down 0.3% as financials underperformed. Gold and Silver spent most of the Asian session rangebound before lift-off in the European and further follow through in the US session up 2% and 4% respectively. With Gold clo...sing above 1960/65 resistance the momentum is now for a test back through 2000 although the 200DMA slowed the rally around 1990. Look for dips around 1960/65 to be met with support. The crypto market has also seen excitement as BTC broke out above 12000 for the first time since July 2019. In FX the commodity currencies benefitted from the risk momentum with AUD regaining 0.7200 and CAD benefitting from a rise in WTI on the day. USD/JPY slipped back through support at 106.20 eventually falling under 106.00. Momentum looks to be indicating further USD weakness for now but we have the FOMC minutes ahead on Thursday so markets will likely tread cautiously until that risk event has passed. Todays Asian session highlight will be the RBA minutes but unlikely to find any surprises there as Lowes speech Friday kept us up to speed on current monetary thinking. The AUD has found good support against the NZD reaching 1.10 for the first time in two years as markets digest further weakening from RBNZ and a holding pattern from the RBA. See more

05.01.2022 Friday saw another round of USD selling supported by the Feds approach to rates and inflation and further month end position rebalancing. Cable, EUR/USD and the commodity bloc currencies all made strong gains on the day vs the greenback breaking above recent highs and confirming a further bullish trend. During the Asian session even USD/JPY was well supported pushing towards 107.00 with the firm risk on moves before Japanese PM Abe announced that he would be stepping down du...e to ongoing health issues. The Nikkei slumped 2% and USD/JPY slipped 70 pips initially before trying to stabilise but then the USD weakness continued and we saw a further fall back to 105.20 during the US session. Press over the weekend have tried to calm markets by insisting Abenomics will continue so we wait to see who his predecessor will be with Foreign Minister Kishida and Cabinet Secretary Suga the frontrunners. For US markets all major indices put on further gains as expected post Powell while metals endured their usual roller coaster. Gold spent most of the day in Asia around 1930 but spiked to 1964 into the close of the US session. The open this morning has seen an early spike to 1976 which was near last weeks high of 1977. Likelihood is for a continuation of USD weakness and a retest of 2000 could be on the cards soon. Weekend press focused on unrest in certain US states, Brexit talks and the ongoing saga of a possible no-deal and sadly further rises in virus cases across Europe with Germany and France seeing highest spikes since May. Japanese retail sales and industrial production, Chinese NBS PMI data and some second tier Australian data amongst the schedule today but the main focus will be Feds Clarida speaking during the US session. The UK will take a bank holiday so expect a slower than usual European session. See more

04.01.2022 Friday saw a day of very little volatility with most currencies and indices treading water within tight ranges. With a lack of economic data and high risk events the week petered out with the USD on the back foot slightly with the Dow closing slightly in the red but S&P500 and Nasdaq some green shoots. Oil and Gold remained in recent ranges with the precious metals regaining 1810 into the close. The weekends focus has been on the EU summit whereby theres some but little grou...nd being made with regard to the deal on the amount of loans to be issued, a slight positive for the EUR to start the week as it sits just shy of last weeks highs around 1.1450. Markets are largely ignoring rumours of further stimulus from the US government so maybe some fatigue around stimulus offsetting concerns of further lockdowns are keeping the optimism in check as the number of cases across the US shows no sign of abating. Asias session ahead doesnt hold any excitement by way of data although we should hear from PBoC on their rate decision. Currencies all remain within last weeks ranges with the USD on the backfoot and G10 near last weeks highs. See more

04.01.2022 With a lack of economic data or key event risk markets refocussed from the further US stimulus back to the increasing number of virus cases. Risk trades started to slip in Asia and gained momentum throughout the following sessions with all US indices closing in the red with the Small Cap Russell and Dow Jones worst affected down almost 3%. High beta currencies followed the moves as they always do with CAD suffering from a triple whammy of stronger USD, a AAA downgrade from Fi...tch and a dip in Oil prices sending the loonie to its weakest in 2 weeks. AUD and NZD fell with the latter hit harder after the RBNZ kept rates and QE unchanged hinting at currency strength affecting exports. The AUD once again tracked the S&P500 reversing its previous days gain falling back to 0.6858 the low on yesterdays dip. The pattern looks likely to continue for the upcoming Asian session as fears gather pace with Texas the most at risk from the influx of hospitalisation. The White House is ignoring the virus cases and continues to launch verbal attacks on China with threats of more tariffs due to a lack of Phase 1 agreed lobster buying. The FBI have also weighed in pointing the finger at China for cyber threats and IP theft and the Pentagon released a list of companies that are aiding Chinese military. One small piece of good news out there surrounds a possible compromise between the EU/UK on Brexit talks but weve heard this all before and its so far been largely ignored. NZ trade data has just been released with no real surprises from expectation. NZD is unmoved. No other data of note in Asia so watch for nervousness around virus news and any response from China to the latest comments from the US. See more

03.01.2022 The long overdue and highly anticipated equity dump was delivered in style with the Dow down over 1100 points at the lows before closing down 2.78% and that was the best performer! The S&P500 down 3.5%, the Russell down 3% but the days winner to be expected is the overbought and bloated Nasdaq at 4.96% on the day. The FANGS, Nvidia and Tesla the biggest losers with Tesla now down over 25% since Tuesday. Analysts are scratching their heads as to what was the catalyst for the ...sell off with one possibility being that China plans to change policy around its semiconductor industry which is likely to impact the tech sector. The knock on effect saw continued strength for the USD in general particularly against the usual risk currencies AUD, NZD and CAD but weaker vs JPY and CHF. The big surprise was EURs strength. Markets having digested verbal intervention around 1.20 altered their thinking to explore the likelihood that the Fed is now on HOLD but the ECB may have to go MORE after this weeks poor EU data. These anomalies allowed the DXY to remain around 92.80/85 into the close after popping above 93.00. Before the collapse we saw the US weekly jobless claims number improve to 881K from 950K expected but adjustment to the calculations mean comparisons to previous weeks would be distorted. Either way it was largely ignored. For once in a long time metals looked calm in comparison. USD gains impacted on Silver and Gold but we also saw other commodity prices falling with copper down 1.4% and lumber plunging 8.1% on the day. Oil by comparison was sanguine closing slightly lower at $41.37. Bitcoin is now looking like a test of 10,000 is coming as the correlation to precious metals remains more aligned than ever. Todays Asian session could be busier than usual with AUD and NZD under pressure as stock markets are likely to remain fragile affecting their strength. A close below 0.7275 for the AUD tonight could see further correction to 0.7150 area, however before then we will get to see the NFP print. Better ISM and revisions to jobless claims could indicate a better number tonight however consumer confidence remains low adding to a cloudier picture, market consensus is 1.35m. Either way Im not sure were likely to see much to change momentum. Recent price action feels like there is further correction ahead so the USD could remain supported for now. Plenty of investors will be looking to buy the dip, but as with the stretch to join the recent hyperbolic rallies, in reverse we could be trying to catch a falling piano. See more

02.01.2022 A slight correction in risk after 4 days of gains (Nasdaq the exception) saw all indices lower as the weekly jobless claims remained higher than expectations and Chinese stocks had fallen over 4% during the Asian session. US m/m retail sales came in better than expected but the y/y data shows the real decline. The small cap Russell was the worst performer down almost 1% but up on the week still. In reporting news Netflix disappointed investors marking down the revenue for 3rd... quarter and seeing the shares slump 12% after the close adding to the Nasdaqs recent weakness. The ECBs Lagarde press conference offered little in the way of encouragement and recent EUR buyers saw the pair fall back from 1.1450 to 1.1370 into the close as the USD made back some gains across the board. Likewise the AUD tried to push higher on the Asian open retesting 0.7020 before the Chinese stock sell off pushed the pair back down stuck 0.6960/00 for most of the day. Gold once again failed to break through 1815 and has since fallen back $20 as risk turned. The CDC reported 70,000 new cases in the US as they will now be overlooked and the data sent directly to the White House to be reported from now on. All eyes will be on the transparency of reporting as some analysts point to the possibility of numbers being doctored pardon the pun, as we head towards the election. Rumours that Texas was about to go back into lockdown were denied by the governor but theres no smoke without fire and with another 10,000 cases reported theres always a possibility. Likewise California had another bad day, now second in cases to NY state. The EU leaders summit starts today so there may be some comments out over the weekend to watch for. Ahead of that todays data highlight is US Michigan consumer sentiment. See more

02.01.2022 Once again the Nasdaq and S&P500 take the headlines for new all-time highs. The tech boom showing the way as an adjustment to members of the Dow Jones index shows how quickly investor momentum can change with Exxon Mobil dropping out after being the worlds largest company only 7 years ago! Positive vaccine news helped support risk throughout the day with the USD on the backfoot for most of Asia and European trading before the US session saw the greenback bounce back somewhat.... Possibly some positioning ahead of Powells speech on Thursday. Gold spent most of the day 1930-1940 but took a leap on the European open squeezing as high as 1962 a $50 jump from Fridays low squeezing some intraday players, however momentum swung back the other way and the pair closed back at 1926. The AUD failed above 0.7200, EUR/USD capped at 1.1850 and Cable despite a brief rally back to 1.3150 fell back 100 pips into the close to all finish not far from where they started yesterday as 10 year yields creeped higher aiding the USD bid tone. On the political front the republicans officially nominated Trump as their candidate for the 2020 election but more of note was India announcing a phase out of Huawei from its networks that could likely inflame already tense relationship with China. In Asia we will see weekly payroll data likely to highlight the lockdown in Victoria and impact on the local economy, however the German IFO release will be the highlight during the European session. See more

01.01.2022 The USD sell off continued from yesterday during the Asian and European sessions. We saw AUD push to a new high of 0.7275 and Cable pushed through to 1.3265, however these levels were the peak and the USD found a resurgence. Gold capped around 2000 and sat rangebound between 1980 and 2000 before the trapdoor opened. The USD rebound continued ahead of the FOMC minutes where market interpretation was that whilst there was an acceptance of continued stimulus no new stimulus was ...forthcoming anytime soon. The lack of any clear guidance as to what to expect for the September meeting also concerned markets. Gold fell back to 1925, AUD dropped 100 pips, Cable 150 and EUR dropped from 1.1950 to 1.1830 on the day as DXY pushed back over 93.00 with some key day reversals in place. All three major US indices closed in the red but no more than 0.5% down across the board, this despite Apple becoming the first US stock to reach a market cap of $2 trillion. The political front remained fairly quiet with the Democratic convention pushing on but one highlight was Chinas probe into Australian wine imports which could impact the AUD. However, recent barbs from China have had little influence on the AUD where most of the movement has been the correlation to risk rather than domestic issues. No news or data of note for the upcoming Asian session. Tonight we will see the US weekly jobless claims release which could cause some volatility with parts of the US lockdown restrictions scaled back influencing the release. See more

01.01.2022 The week started pretty much the same as last week ended with an overall weaker USD as month end selling continued and US yields remained under pressure. The DXY pushed through recent support at 92.00/20 but has since moved back above into the close. USD/JPY bucked the trend and managed to regain 106 albeit briefly but stronger on the crosses with CAD/JPY the days best performer. Stocks were mixed with the Dow and S&P500 closing slightly down on the day but the Nasdaq off to... a flier as investors sought to pile into Apple and Tesla now that theyre 4 and 5 times cheaper respectively than last week! (Stock split influenced of course). Feds Clarida comments drew markets focus to the realisation that they may be on hold for the foreseeable future and reliant on fiscal stimulus more so to lift the economy in the immediate future. Despite the continued impasse, hopefully next week we will see the Democrats and Republicans agree on a new stimulus package that is already one month in arrears. Gold closed higher than Friday but failed to break above last weeks highs at 1977, but Silver was the better performer on the day. Despite predictions at the start of the month of risk to inflated stock prices and overbought currencies correcting vs the USD it didnt pan out that way with the past month being the best month for global equities since 1986. AUD, CAD and NZD all made new recent highs overnight and have been the greatest beneficiaries of these risk on moves but ultimately could cause pain for these countries recovery due to the uncompetitive price of their currency. Data wise China PMI was better than expected but had little impact on market moves with most Asian indexes down on the day. Today we will see Caixin PMI data alongside the RBA rate decision expecting unchanged. However we need to watch for any commentary around the excessive strength of the AUD. The rest of the day will be dominated by further global PMIs during the European and US sessions. See more