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25.01.2022 The chart shows the number of dwellings approved, but not yet started. Whilst the number of attached dwelling non-starts have fallen which is a good thing the 21,500 not yet commenced attached dwellings (which are mostly mid-to-high rise apartments) account for a third (32%) of all new attached dwellings approvals last year. In contrast, the 9,000 approved but not yet started detached houses accounts for just 9% of last year’s total detached housing approvals. And with H...omeBuilder focusing, by default, on new detached housing builds I expect this spare capacity to drop dramatically over coming months. Any future extension of the HomeBuilder incentive needs to embrace new attached dwelling supply and especially social housing. Click on the chart to read my full weekly post.

25.01.2022 For a few minutes there His Bobness loves bowling and hated The Eagles

24.01.2022 Happy New Year and all that jazz. If 2020 taught us anything at all, it is that some numbers are thrown around as if they are vital yet many of us don’t really know if they are true; actually, important or what they even mean. More often than not, we don’t have a simple set of base line reference points to help ground truth or add clarity.... Of course, I am talking about Covid-related statistics here, but there is also a need for a simple, yet solid, range of base line reference numbers to help make sense of the housing market too. So instead of posts, typical at this time of the year, guessing what might happen over the next 12 months in coming weeks I will be sending you a range of numbers that I like to keep in my head or have within easy reach that helps me understand what is going on when the latest headline housing market statistic comes across my bow. This week let’s cover housing demographics. Click on the tennis ball for more....

24.01.2022 Things have improved, and in some locations, substantially, rent wise in almost all of Queensland’s major regional markets. Covid flight? Well not really, this is just the usual property cycle if you ask me.... The regions where oversupplied in the mid-2010s. Since then little new investment housing stock has been built and the regions have also attracted fewer investors than normally would be the case. Yet population growth still trudged along, and in time, the amount of vacant rental properties declined. Hence rental growth. It is really just about supply versus demand. It does help if a few mines and construction projects start too. Of course, there has been some Covid impact, but I reckon there will be a fair bit of snapback too. https://matusik.com.au/2020/11/10/regional-qld-rents/

23.01.2022 Covid19 is likely to see more people consider a life outside of the capital city. But this has been a long term trend. Most are really moving to the outer conurbation - on the edges of what the official statistics currently define a ‘capital city’ - where housing is more affordable and better suits our demographic, and importantly, psychological makeup. We are suburban people. We like a nexus to the ground; we want to own our own bit of dirt and we appear to be prepared to accept the commute (and distance) to get it.

21.01.2022 There are currently about 10 million households in Australia, which house about 13.5 million spare bedrooms. We should be exploring housing incentives and relaxing regulations to maximise the use of our existing homes. It would help if the town planning mindset changed from dwellings per hectare to people per hectare. If such a measure was a planning benchmark, then we would do much more to capitalise on our existing infrastructure and underutilised existing housing stock.

20.01.2022 Join Colliers International for a business luncheon to learn more about the current property market with guest speaker Michael Matusik. Yes me! I will be speaking about the Toowoomba property market for 2020 as well as major trends shaping urban development and my insights into housing opportunities over the next 10 years. A great guest panel follows my outlook presentation as we debate a major issue facing Toowoomba - the lack of land supply.... To book your seat you here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlIpNW1EMwU I hope to see you there. Michael PS I am less 'washed out' in person! #housingmarket #land #Toowoomba #realestate #landsupply #townplanning #Colliers

18.01.2022 The sequel to the film Back to the Future tells the story of Marty McFly and Dr. Emmett Doc Brown and their travels from 1985 to 2015 to prevent Marty's son from sabotaging the McFly family's future. Their arch-nemesis Biff Tannen steals Doc’s DeLorean time machine to alter history for his benefit he purchases an almanac, containing the results of major sporting events from 1950 to 2000 - the duo must return to 1955 to restore the timeline. Okay enough Hollywood preamble envisage you had a south east Queensland residential property almanac covering the ten years between 2010 and 2020. Imagine if you could go back to 2010, where would put your housing dollar? Link on Marty or Docs head to find out more!

17.01.2022 In my recent Master Class I outlined the issues that experienced property industry practitioners anticipate will have the larger impact on the housing market over the next 12 months. It started quite a debate. This quarterly survey of 370 individuals by NAB allows for multiple responses and their June quarter poll found: * 80% believe that rising unemployment and job uncertainty will have the biggest short-term impact on the housing market, followed by... * 76% said lower consumer confidence, * 60% difficulty in buyers (and developers) getting finance, * 60% the end (and tampering off) of JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments, * 48% lower migration, * 20% increased supply of rental as short-term rentals enter the long-term market, * 19% increased demand for regional living including lifestyle, sea change and tree change choices, * 18% downward pressure on construction activity from lower demand, and * 17% reduced demand for apartments and inner city dwelling due to increased working from home. It is interesting what the housing industry thinks will have the most impact and which issues they consider to be less serious. I would have placed ‘difficulties accessing finance’, ‘lower migration’ and ‘downward pressure on construction activity’ higher up my list.

17.01.2022 Developers who largely rely on overseas buyers are lining up now, calling for relaxations in FIRB regulations and reductions in stamp duties for foreign buyers. Apparently Covid has decimated offshore market sales. Hmmm, well overseas buying of Australian housing assets has been on the wane for some time.... I am a strong believer that we should limit the proportion of new stock that we sell to foreign buyers. Fifty percent should be the maximum. When it comes to resales, we should have a very simple rule, ‘no passport, no buy’. We should only sell established housing to Australian passport holders. Foreign buyers should also pay a higher stamps and land tax too. Fighting words maybe, and if so, dukes up.

17.01.2022 This week's Matusik Missive looks at land supply across SEQld. There isn't enough land available for development. Facing such limitations one would think that is high time to open up more land; rethink existing constraints; decentralise the state government workforce; reverses the townhouse development ban in Brisbane City Council and generally encourage middle-ring and suburban infill development including backyard housing solutions. ... To read my post and get the three supporting tables click on my scone below.

15.01.2022 Any words will just get in the way!

12.01.2022 Toowoomba has just two (2) two years of subdivisional approvals which is below the four (4) years minimum SEQ Growth Monitoring recommendations and the area has less that 6 months’ supply for sale. https://matusik.com.au/2020/10/20/toowoomba-land-supply/

12.01.2022 This week’s table outlines the recent and current median weekly rents across select south east Queensland areas. In contrast to what you often read, or hear, about the rental market, most areas in SEQld, and across most housing types, have seen an increase in weekly rents over the last couple of years, including 2020. The few exceptions have been highlighted in the table.... So, the headlines shouting ‘capital city rents are shite’ or words to that affect don’t ring true.

12.01.2022 The chart shows cash rate reductions against annual house price growth. Falling interest rates do eventually help instigate house price growth. I believe that the Australian housing market has now entered a ‘sweet spot’, helped by lower interest rates, easier access to credit and government stimulus.... I also think this will last for about a year, maybe a bit longer, after which the longer term, and larger, trends will start to exert their influence. To read my full post go here: https://matusik.com.au//interest-rates-v-house-price-grow/

10.01.2022 COVID19 and the Australian financial assistance packages - in particular JobKeeper and HomeBuilder - have sparked quite a bit of commentary about better planned local communities and what ingredients make better new suburban subdivisions. I like to think we are a bit ahead of the curve and over recent years my firm has undertaken various investigations into the benefits of advanced community infrastructure rollouts in new housing estates. To find out more click on my head below. Click not bang!

10.01.2022 there was a time - which doesn't feel that long ago - when I had hair and my wife had a different surname

09.01.2022 This week's Matusik Missive is the 3rd post of our 3 part series on SEQ land trends. This time I look at land development supply. 3 new tables are also included. Why is it titled 13? Click on my head to find out more.

07.01.2022 The HomeBuilder package has helped generate a lot more buyer inquiry for vacant land and new house/land packages. The month of June was said to be hectic. It is likely that the interest will remain high for the rest of calendar 2020 as well. What is yet to be seen is if the inquiry and associated holding deposits turn into contracts. ... I suspect that there will be a high fallout rate as lenders look hard to each borrower’s employment status, future earning capacity, lifestyle spending and debt profile. That said,The Matusik Missive this week is the 1st post of a south east Queensland land market trilogy. My post includes two tables showing the suburban distribution of new land development across SEQ and suburban vacant land and house/land prices and sales. Click on my head - if you dare - to read my post and access the tables. Valuable + free!

06.01.2022 Land sales are now increasing across south east Queensland. In some cases, this increase is rapid. Much of this momentum is due to the recent HomeBuilder incentive. Demand is being brought forward. Prior to this covid induced builder incentive, land sales were falling across many south east Queensland LGAs. These falls were most marked in areas struggling with land supply. This lack of subdividable land supply is the most acute on the Gold Coast, in Brisbane, Redlands an...d in Moreton Bay. When casting a wider net, Toowoomba too is facing a lack of new subdividable land. In all instances the local authorities in cahoots with the Queensland state government - argue that there are adequate broad hectare subdivision supplies, but ground truthing finds the opposite. Click on my gut to find out more!

06.01.2022 Our research has found that a vacancy rate under 2% suggests a significant shortfall of suitable rental accommodation. Typically, when the vacancy rate is under 2% weekly rents start to rise. This is lower than the usually promoted 3% to 4%. This is because many tenants monitor vacancies proactively these days. Digital technology helps facilitate this. Gone are the days of a printed ‘for rent’ agency list being the main way renters found out about vacant accommodation. Many tenants have the ability to pounce on available space; hence the vacancy rate trigger point has dropped to under 2%.

03.01.2022 We should be stimulating the whole building industry and not just new house and land packages or top end renovations for a quick six-month boost as per the HomeBuilder package. We need a more evenly spread building package covering all building types and geographic locations - plus one that covers several years not just months.

03.01.2022 When you read, hear or are told something statistical based it is helpful to have a base case to make a comparison. This base case intel is the ‘bird’s eye’ statistical perspective - a helicopter’s view so to speak whilst what we mostly hear or are told is from a ‘worm’s eye’ viewpoint or from personal perception. For example, I was told over the Christmas break by a friend that Hobart was the fastest growing Australian capital city and with just under half million residen...ts, ‘Slowbart’ was set to overtake Canberra in size. My friend meant well but a quick review of the base line statistics shows that he was talking bullocks. He did make, it must be said, a somewhat amusing quip about which capital was the slowest. Moreover, I kept on reading how regional Australia is going to take the ‘lion’s share’ of the country’s population growth in coming years. I don’t know what these peeps mean by ‘lion’s share’ but a quick Google search suggests it means the ‘largest proportion’ or ‘major share’. Yet 80% of the recent population growth takes place in our capitals and when you include the outer conurbations of our major capitals (Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Newcastle etc) the capital city metropolises attract 90% of the current population gains. It will take more than Covid19 to turn this ‘Pasha Bulker’ towards regional Oz. More concerning is the persistent claim often used by investment sellers trying to flog Queensland housing that the Sunshine State attracts 1,000 new interstate residents per week. I received two spruiky emails over the last week holding such statements. However this statement is inflated 2.5 times, with the most recent net interstate movement to Queensland being closer to 400 per week. Clink of the guideline tab to get a copy of my three base case population tables.

03.01.2022 Many seem to confuse our demographic shape with housing market activity. A classic example is that baby boomers due to the large size of this demographic cohort is a major home buyer group. Yet an analysis of recent buyer trends tells a different story.... The attached table shows, as one would expect, that most first home buyers are aged between 25 and 34 years of age. What is surprising is that 30% of first home buyers who buy a new dwelling are under 24 years of age. Most ‘changeover’ buyers are aged under 54 years, with empty nesters and baby boomers make up between 30% and 40% of the housing market depending on the age of the housing being purchased. Click on the table to read any full post.

03.01.2022 Prices are expected to rise during 2021, and maybe more than the talking heads are suggesting. I have no idea really by how much prices could rise. I don't like predictions. Many want me to put a number on a future outcome. I resist doing such as it really is guesstimating at best. BS more likely. And the last 12 months provides more evidence that such punts aren’t worth much.... I rather limit my endeavours to foresight. I know that sounds quite up myself, but I am into trying to understand the shape of things rather than presuming their exact structure or mould. I think that is more accurate and useful. To understand is better than blind acceptance. And 2021 looks like it is shaping up to be a sweet spot for residential property. But just as circumstances align well for 2021, the medium-term conditions don’t look as rosy. Economic reality will take hold soon. Enjoy it whilst it lasts.

02.01.2022 Some new stuff that I enjoyed reading and listening to this year, plus my last Missive post for 2020. Back on Tuesday 19th Jan next year. Have a safe and relaxing break peeps! https://matusik.com.au/2020/12/15/goodbye-2020/