Karl Lijnders | Public figure

Karl Lijnders

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25.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS For people in South West Slopes and parts of Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains and Riverina Forecast Districts. Issued at 2:46 pm Tuesday, 1 December 2020.... DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND Plan Image Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Orange, Mudgee, Bathurst, Dubbo, Parkes, Wagga Wagga, Albury, West Wyalong and Tumbarumba.

25.01.2022 I really hope it’s chucking it down in the region after the driest November in 139 years!!!!

25.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES For people in Southern Tablelands and parts of Central Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts. Issued at 3:45 pm Tuesday, 1 December 2020.... DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND Plan Image Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Orange, Canberra, Goulburn, Yass, Parkes, Condobolin, Young, West Wyalong and Gundagai. Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the Riverina district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.

24.01.2022 My last shift for the week. Finally with restrictions easing I can visit my family in Melbourne for the first time since Christmas. It’s been a hard slog this year for everyone - family is very important. Lucky I get to see mine. Have a wonderful rest of your week. See you Monday.

22.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS For people in parts of Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western Forecast Districts. Issued at 2:36 pm Wednesday, 11 November 2020.... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ABOUT WESTERN NSW Plan Image Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Deniliquin, Hay, Menindee, Balranald and Fowlers Gap.

21.01.2022 Great to have Kirstie Fitzpatrick with me tonight in the news on weather duties, while Elly has a long weekend. Nice to be in the same studio at the same time....FINALLY!!

20.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES For people in parts of Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts. Issued at 2:33 pm Wednesday, 2 December 2020.... Plan Image Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Tenterfield, Woodenbong, Baryulgil, Jackadgery, Ebor and Yarrowitch.

16.01.2022 A WET AND POTENTIALLY MILDER SUMMER ON THE WAY. ** Thank you to all the people that read the blurb and understand the forecasts for what they are. ** It is starting out very hot and dry for many this week, but significant signals for a wet, humid and milder summer for 2020/21 is on the way. ... I could post about a dozen different model agencies and parameters that suggest a wet phase is about to ramp up in summer in line with the monsoon descending and the La Nina peaking. Maximum temperatures after this week, should moderate in line with increase of cloudiness and humidity/rainfall building. This will be thanks to the heat troughs that form in this excessive heat event, and then the moisture that pools near these features over the coming fortnight. The rainfall in the short term will be for the northern half of the nation and will spread south and east at the end of the first week of December or second week of December. Again the rainfall initially will be storm focused so it will be uneven in it's distribution. I know many are wanting to argue their point that this year is the same as last year, it isn't. Nowhere near the same climatically, however there are pockets who have not fully recovered from drought and have missed out on rainfall. It does not mean that the La Nina is not here, it is a classified event now and it is now underway. Many areas in the ACT for example are running on near record spring rainfall after having record dry last season. So if you are hanging out for rainfall, it is coming. If you don't want rainfall, prepare for it, it is coming. If you want a storm, they will be around, if you don't want storms, they are going to be around. Weather cannot be everything to everyone at once, and so I hope it works out for you. Image - BoM % chance of exceeding median rainfall and maximum temperatures for summer 2020/2021.

16.01.2022 A PATTERN FLIP LIKELY IN MID DECEMBER. We have been experiencing an extended period of strong westerly winds over the Southern Ocean advancing north over recent weeks, bringing bursts of windy hot weather to the southeast and east of the nation and unseasonal rainfall to southwest Australia. The pattern is expected to continue for another 5 days, with a front today, triggering windy hot weather with severe storms possible today (that storm focus moves into northern NSW on Wed...nesday and Thursday), and another front on the weekend will bring yet another burst of heat (not as hot as this event today) with rain and thunderstorms again for southeast Austrlaia. As we go into next week, we see a new high pressure ridge move into the Great Australian Bight and it looks like this belt of higher pressure will beat down the westerly winds well south of the nation, allowing easterly winds to return and thus, more chances for inland rainfall over QLD and NSW. During this time, a tropical disturbance will develop north of the NT bringing an uptake in the number of showers and storms. This disturbance is likely to move west of Darwin next week, before tracking into the Indian Ocean in around 10 days time. Now this system has had many different looks as shown on this page over recent days, and continues to be very tricky to pin down. If the tropical feature moves west and then south into northern WA, it may be enough to kick off an enhanced period of rainfall for northern Australia. This will in turn see moisture be pulled south and east into the jet stream and also see rainfall increase for parts of southern and eastern Australia during the middle of the month. It could bring in the monsoonal flow into Australian waters too - but time will tell. It is far too early to be sure. So despite it being hot and dry for many at the moment, the difference this year is that we have regular systems moving through bringing the chance of rainfall. The rainfall chances I still forecast to increase for QLD and NSW from mid month. And finally, could see some pretty cold weather come through the southeast early next week following the front. Some local light morning frost is possible for TAS, elevated parts of VIC and southern NSW Monday or Tuesday morning. Video - MSLP and 24hr Rainfall for December 1-16 2020. GFS.

15.01.2022 A VERY HOT AIRMASS WILL GIVE RISE TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND QLD THIS AFTERNOON. A very hot airmass continues for parts of QLD today, after near record breaking heat, we need some rainfall and a pattern flip pronto, it has been a brutal period. We do have a trough of low pressure entering the south of the state during the coming 24 hours and on and north of this feature, showers and thunderstorms are likely to break out.... Storms could be severe today over the southern parts of the state, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats. Tomorrow the thunderstorm activity is expected to ramp up as the trough picks up a little bit more moisture. As you can see from the higher resolution modelling, the rainfall will scattered and random, and with that no one can tell you exactly how much you will receive. Just know the nature of the rainfall is not uniform at this time of year. The steering currents in the upper atmosphere have collapsed somewhat so storms will crawl along at a snails pace meaning some areas get a whack and others get a drizzle or nothing. Be weather aware and know where to get a good source of severe weather information. Image - Rainfall spread for the next 24 hours ACCESS/BOM. I will be interested to see how the rainfall prognosis in the Miles region plays out against modelling, or whether any region does receive this rainfall amount.

15.01.2022 HEADS UP FOR A BRIEF BUT SEVERE STORM IN CANBERRA NEXT HOUR. Damaging winds near 110kmh are likely with this fast moving storm out of the northwest. Chance of hail too. This storm has the potential to knock down trees.

12.01.2022 A year ago today. And very similar conditions this weekend, but thankfully above average rainfall for the last 6 months has dampened down the fire risks here. Let’s hope the weekend heat is the only severe fire weather we experience.

11.01.2022 RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING IN THE COMING WEEK. In line with the tropics ramping up and finally the loss of the westerly wind belt to the south of the nation, things are turning humid and stormy for many over the coming week. That activity looks to ramp up further next week for QLD and northern NSW. Also a tropical disturbance off the NT and northern WA will likely see a marked increase of rainfall near its centre. ... Where that system goes will play a major role in a wet spell leading into Christmas this year, with large swathes of the country under shower and thunderstorm for a number of days. Will have to watch troughs in QLD which could become near stationary and start to bring widespread rainfall as well. The loss of the westerly winds down south and the replacement with easterly winds from the Coral and Tasman Seas will also be key to this change for a very dry inland QLD and northeast NSW. Video - Rainfall accumulation for the next fortnight. GFS.

11.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES For people in Lower Western and parts of Riverina and Upper Western Forecast Districts. Issued at 4:43 pm Wednesday, 11 November 2020.... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS & LARGE HAILSTONES ABOUT WESTERN NSW Plan Image Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Deniliquin, Hay, Wilcannia, White Cliffs, Ivanhoe, Menindee, Balranald, Tilpa and Fowlers Gap.

09.01.2022 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. Scattered random storms likely to form along a trough crossing NSW today. Storms will develop during the afternoon and evening with the potential for strong gusty winds and large hail. ... The highest risk of severe storms is over the southeastern inland. The focus shifts northeast tomorrow.

08.01.2022 What a beauty.

07.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS For people in parts of Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes and Riverina Forecast Districts. Issued at 1:48 pm Tuesday, 1 December 2020.... DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND Plan Image Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Condobolin, Wagga Wagga, Albury, Young, West Wyalong, Griffith, Narrandera, Lockhart and Darlington Point.

07.01.2022 Fast moving storms packing a punch with damaging winds and heavy lightning activity in the southern inland.

06.01.2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL For people in Mallee, Northern Country and parts of North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 2:23 pm Wednesday, 11 November 2020.... ACTIVE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN VICTORIA Plan Image Weather Situation: A slow moving low-pressure trough crossing the state likely to result in severe thunderstorms today. Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Stawell, Bendigo, Echuca, Maryborough and Castlemaine. An 87km/h gust was recorded in storms at Swan Hill at 1:45pm

05.01.2022 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. The forecasts probably don’t reflect the potential for nasty weather today so be weather aware. The threat is conditional. It also doesn’t mean you will get a storm despite the drawn areas. It shows the potential of storms form, how strong they COULD be in one given location. ... Thunderstorms are forecast across much of the state today due to a hot and unstable airmass ahead of a cold front, which will also generate fresh to strong winds. Thunderstorms are already occurring near the SA border and are expected to become more active, possibly forming a line along the wind change, during the afternoon along the western slopes, ranges and southern inland. This will then move east, reaching central parts of the coast in the evening. Isolated and mostly dry thunderstorms are also possible across the north. Severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern and central inland, ranges and coast, becoming likely about the southern and central ranges (including the ACT) and the adjacent western slopes as well as parts of the Central West today. Damaging winds are the prime concern with strong winds through the depth atmosphere and with high-based thunderstorms. However, across the southeastern quarter of the state, the risk of large hail and heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Please note a Severe Weather Warning is also current today for damaging winds about Alpine areas. Image - BOM Thunderstorm FORECAST.

05.01.2022 MORNING WEATHER UPDATE FOR AUSTRALIA. We have an active build up over northern Australia with a run of stormy days expected, a hot and breezy Tuesday coming up over eastern Australia once again, with a chance of severe thunderstorms with a change and a pattern flip as we go through the first week of December. A fast flow pattern is still continuing in line with the southern ocean still throwing up cold fronts for the next five days or so. Each one of these will assist in dr...agging down hot air from the desert, elevating fire danger but also triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms as the pass through the east. Some storms tomorrow could be severe in southern NSW and into the ACT. Over northern Australia the wet season continues to build up with a threat of severe storms over the next 3 days, with damaging winds the main threat. Darwin will see these lurk around. We calm down through the majority of the nation from mid week as a high tracks east. This high will bring settled skies and warmer weather for WA. The warm weather will reach the southeast during Friday and Saturday ahead of another cold front. This front may link up with tropical moisture and bring rain and storms once again for SA, VIC and southern NSW this weekend. Something to watch. The system will be moving up into the eastern inland of NSW and QLD during next week, stalling and triggering scattered showers and storms. New high pressure coming in much further south of the mainland will beat down the westerly winds and will allow moist onshore easterly winds to develop for QLD and NSW. This will aid in rainfall chances coming back. So from around the 6th of December, the rainfall focus will be mainly through QLD and the NT, spilling back down into the southeast states soon after. Also keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance off NW WA which may bring an increase in rainfall for a lot of the nation into mid month. You can clearly see the pattern flip at the end of the video. Video - MSLP and 24 hour rainfall for the 30th of November-15th of December. GFS. #wxmatters

04.01.2022 One of the strong storms near Wallabadeen yesterday. Great to be back doing what I love!!

02.01.2022 Thundery signature in the sky today combined with high heat and damaging winds in some locations today - a messy day for the eastern inland. Take care out there in the heat. Storms will develop over western and southern NSW today with the potential for some damaging wind gusts and quite significant lightning. The storms will be elevated so rainfall will be on the lighter side at this stage. That means a dangerous fire weather day is in the way. ... The cloud formation below is altocumulus castellanus which feature prominently in the summer near areas of lower air pressure. If you see these, they often signify shower and storm activity at stage within the viewing region. They are situated in the middle levels of the atmosphere.

02.01.2022 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NSW AND SE QLD. A trough lingering through the region is expected to drive scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon and more particularly during Thursday. Storms could be severe with damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and large hail stones. ... After a prolonged dry period in this region, heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding quite quickly, so be weather aware and be across the warnings. Storms are likely to be slow moving today with the steering currents collapsing across the region in the upper atmosphere, hence why you can see on the high resolution rainfall spread below, the blotchy nature of rainfall distribution. It is storm lotto, some will get a decent whack and others will likely continue to miss out. Better rainfall opportunities do exist into mid month. More on that on the post pinned to the top of the page. Image - High Resolution ACCESS/BOM rainfall accumulation for the next 24 hours. This primarily for thunderstorm activity anticipated to fire off this afternoon.

01.01.2022 TROPICAL UPDATE - PERHAPS SOME TROPICAL MISCHIEF ON THE WAY. As we enter December, the tropics certainly start to get active, with an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage each and every afternoon and evening. That will continue to be the case this week.... Into December, there are some signals that tropical mischief in the form of a couple of tropical low pressure systems in Australian waters, especially to the north and west of Darwin and move southwest. HOWEVER, it is deterministic data and will be very erratic and likely show the system, and then not show the system in another model run. For now I am keeping the forecast as one of persistence, with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with perhaps an uptake of rainfall chances as we move into mid December. But it is that time of year we have to keep a close eye on the tropics. I would give the system developing into a tropical cyclone a 20% chance this far out. Where it forms, who knows but it is something to watch. The Euro model says, no cyclone or low, and keeping it as a traditional build up forecast. More on that obviously as we go through the next week. The tropics are expected to be very active this season, especially January through April. Image - Rainfall for the next fortnight - GFS. If a low does form and moves over land in the below example, then rainfall chances over the rest of the nation will markedly increase.

01.01.2022 AFTER THE RECORD BREAKING SPRING HEAT - DECEMBER TURNS HUMID AND STORMY. An early season severe heatwave is starting to envelop the eastern half of the nation from today, with excessive dry heat for parts of SA, NSW, QLD and northern VIC. The heat is expected to intensify during the next 3-4 days. The heat, unpleasant as it is for many, will also play a part in destabalising the atmosphere over the course of the next week, with heat troughs forming over multiple areas of in...land Australia. The moisture is set to increase over northern Australia, and eventually will spill south and east in early December, starting to feed the troughs, thus seeing an increase in afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms next week over many areas in the east. A southeast change will also roll up the NSW coast during next week also adding dynamics for showers and thunderstorms to develop, and introducing some moisture as well into the eastern inland thanks to onshore winds. Over the course of next week, there will likely be a steady increase of cloudiness over the nation, so the heat values will simmer down, and the rainfall opportunities will tick up. With the shower and thunderstorm activity, that does mean storm lotto is back, and the rainfall will be uneven in it's distribution, so generally speaking these charts are very tricky to draw. So I recommend using caution, and more as a guide to a wetter phase. This is in line with the shift under La Nina, I am still anticipating a wet December through March period, but also remember we are in summer, and we can still have periods of dry weather. The rainfall opportunities will increase in line with the tropics becoming more active and the monsoon arriving. And if you have made it this far down the post - I won't be responding to the La Nina is not here posts - La Nina is here and the modelling has been very good in handling the event. The specifics as to who has benefited and who has not will always be up for debate. Best of luck and be prepared for severe weather season and potential flooding. Image - Rainfall guide for the next 2 weeks. The rainfall distribution means your number will vary. If you follow my forecasts then you understand this. GFS