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DARE ARC Centre

Address: School of Computer Science Building 2006

Website: https://darecentre.org.au

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20.01.2022 Our Director, Prof Sally Cripps will be delivering the 2020 Statistical Science Lecture at UOW: University of Wollongong, Australia on Wednesday, 18 November at 2:45pm AEST. She will present a talk titled, 'Zen and the Art of Bayesian Geology/Hydrology/Ecology.' To attend the free live event at the UOW, please register at https://bit.ly/3pbL02Y To watch the livestream via the Statistical Society of Australia, please register at https://bit.ly/38p0cUs

20.01.2022 A Case Study in Model Failure? COVID-19 Daily Deaths and ICU Bed Utilisation Predictions in New York State Paper by Vincent Chin, Noelle I. Samia, Roman Marchant, Ori Rosen, John P.A. Ioannidis, Martin A. Tanner and Sally Cripps has been accepted for publication in the European Journal of Epidemiology (EJEP) Forecasting models have been influential in shaping decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is concern that their predictions may have been misleading. ...Here, we dissect the predictions made by four models for the daily COVID-19 death counts between March 25 and June 5 in New York state, as well as the predictions of ICU bed utilisation made by the influential IHME model. We evaluated the accuracy of the point estimates and the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates of the model predictions. Read full paper at https://darecentre.org.au/health/covid-19/ #covid19 #datascience #statistics See more

12.01.2022 Forecasting models have been influential in shaping decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic in two main areas. The first area is the use of prediction models for decision making in resources allocation, and second is the use of models for decision making in regard to the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, there is concern that predictions and inference from these models may have been misleading. In this talk Prof Sally Cripps discusses findings regarding the accuracy of four prediction models for daily death counts in the state of New York in the early stages of the pandemic, as well as inference on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the effective reproduction number for #COVID19 in various European countries. https://youtu.be/GTw5OX2r48s

04.01.2022 Join us on Thursday at 4pm for DARE's first Health & Social Sciences talk. We'll talk about how to identify useful models for decision-making & quantifying their uncertainty. Examples will include applications to domestic violence, policing, lockout laws & #COVID19. To attend, enter the Zoom room directly at 4:00pm this Thursday, 3 Sept: https://uni-sydney.zoom.us/j/93755374798?from=msft